* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942025 06/16/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 29 36 45 59 68 61 62 62 62 60 60 62 65 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 29 36 45 59 50 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 32 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 31 35 41 38 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 8 6 6 4 5 6 3 4 11 7 8 6 5 7 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 1 1 -1 -6 -5 -8 2 -2 0 -5 -2 -2 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 45 83 109 136 133 150 181 172 76 50 278 307 9 64 98 72 99 SST (C) 28.7 29.0 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.9 29.7 30.3 30.1 29.4 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 150 153 155 157 159 162 161 168 167 159 162 160 159 155 153 152 149 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -52.5 -53.0 -51.9 -52.5 -51.8 -52.3 -51.8 -52.3 -51.9 -52.3 -52.2 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 4 4 5 4 7 5 8 5 7 4 6 4 7 4 700-500 MB RH 80 81 83 84 85 87 86 87 87 85 84 81 79 76 73 67 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 11 13 16 17 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 81 67 62 70 69 67 75 78 73 87 65 61 64 79 87 67 75 200 MB DIV 65 52 50 70 67 68 86 144 146 160 107 32 -25 22 27 12 -3 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -9 -5 3 -1 -1 -2 -1 -2 0 LAND (KM) 357 331 302 275 243 177 145 104 -80 -140 -219 -342 -310 -196 -103 -33 61 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.8 11.2 11.5 11.8 12.6 13.6 15.1 16.8 18.5 19.9 20.9 21.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 90.4 90.9 91.2 91.4 91.6 92.2 93.2 94.3 95.7 97.3 99.1 100.8 102.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 4 4 4 6 9 10 11 11 11 8 6 5 4 4 6 HEAT CONTENT 14 17 19 21 23 27 31 35 22 7 1 13 9 11 13 15 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 14. 21. 26. 30. 32. 34. 35. 36. 37. 39. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 9. 11. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 4. 11. 20. 34. 43. 36. 37. 38. 37. 35. 35. 37. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.4 90.4 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942025 INVEST 06/16/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.83 6.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 34.9 to 8.5 0.59 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 15.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 -6.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.46 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.29 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.15 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.38 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.4% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% 19.7% 19.9% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 6.0% 2.3% 1.0% 0.1% 5.3% 29.6% 40.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 27.7% Consensus: 0.2% 7.2% 4.9% 0.3% 0.0% 8.4% 16.6% 22.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 14.0% SDCON: .1% 5.1% 2.9% .6% 0% 4.7% 9.3% 18.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942025 INVEST 06/16/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##