* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962025 07/05/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 44 52 59 61 61 60 57 55 50 48 45 41 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 44 52 59 61 61 60 57 55 50 48 45 41 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 33 36 38 39 39 39 38 37 35 33 30 27 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 10 10 9 7 6 5 7 5 4 5 4 2 3 10 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -4 -3 -4 0 1 -1 -3 -4 0 -2 -1 1 2 0 3 SHEAR DIR 23 17 15 36 34 60 95 48 90 98 128 175 220 182 217 237 254 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.1 28.9 28.6 27.9 27.5 27.0 26.6 25.9 24.9 24.8 24.6 23.9 24.7 24.5 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 156 154 150 143 138 134 130 123 113 112 110 103 111 109 101 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -53.3 -53.7 -53.4 -53.7 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.6 -0.9 -1.1 -0.9 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 7 4 3 3 2 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 76 74 73 72 72 78 78 77 75 73 67 65 60 57 53 52 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 7 8 10 12 13 13 13 13 12 13 11 11 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -10 -17 -12 -9 1 6 14 24 31 33 24 22 20 17 23 25 200 MB DIV 53 28 -15 -19 -9 9 16 12 15 16 23 11 -2 -21 -13 0 10 700-850 TADV 0 -4 -1 1 0 2 0 0 1 -1 0 3 -2 0 2 -6 0 LAND (KM) 499 496 498 532 568 691 820 894 965 1066 1205 1375 1545 1743 1949 2164 2096 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.1 14.5 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.4 15.5 15.8 16.3 16.7 17.0 17.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.8 104.8 105.8 106.8 107.8 109.8 111.5 113.3 115.3 117.4 119.8 122.4 125.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 9 10 11 12 13 12 13 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 44 43 38 32 27 22 19 14 12 7 4 2 1 1 1 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 19. 24. 27. 29. 30. 30. 29. 28. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 2. 2. 5. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 7. 4. 4. 3. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 27. 34. 36. 36. 35. 32. 30. 25. 23. 20. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.7 103.8 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP962025 INVEST 07/05/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.82 7.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 34.9 to 8.5 0.73 4.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 61.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 -6.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.20 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.32 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 58.2 to 0.0 0.99 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.20 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.1% 15.9% 0.0% 0.0% 21.0% 17.7% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 9.1% 4.0% 1.8% 1.5% 5.4% 12.2% 28.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 5.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.7% 1.3% 0.6% Consensus: 0.6% 12.1% 6.7% 0.6% 0.6% 9.1% 10.4% 9.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% SDCON: .3% 7.5% 4.3% .8% .3% 5.0% 5.7% 5.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962025 INVEST 07/05/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##