* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962025 07/05/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 43 50 57 60 58 56 51 46 42 39 39 36 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 43 50 57 60 58 56 51 46 42 39 39 36 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 32 34 36 37 38 38 36 33 30 27 24 23 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 10 10 11 6 5 5 5 6 9 9 9 7 5 4 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -3 -3 0 3 -1 -3 -3 -2 -1 -2 -1 0 0 4 5 SHEAR DIR 14 26 31 28 35 41 59 79 80 193 158 178 183 212 234 247 216 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.4 27.9 27.5 26.5 26.0 24.5 24.5 24.8 23.5 24.8 24.4 24.1 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 155 152 148 143 139 129 124 109 109 112 99 112 108 104 102 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.6 -0.9 -1.0 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 73 72 71 73 75 77 78 77 77 72 68 64 59 57 55 52 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 8 9 9 13 13 15 16 15 16 15 13 13 12 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -16 -13 -14 -10 -3 12 22 34 36 42 39 31 25 28 25 40 200 MB DIV 25 9 -8 3 16 16 43 -13 14 28 21 15 -9 -21 -14 20 5 700-850 TADV -5 0 3 1 0 2 0 3 -1 3 2 2 -2 3 -2 -2 2 LAND (KM) 505 513 539 576 608 723 855 895 986 1131 1289 1486 1688 1923 2154 2121 1871 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.2 14.5 14.7 14.9 15.1 15.4 15.8 16.3 16.8 17.2 17.4 17.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.5 105.5 106.5 107.4 108.3 110.1 111.9 114.0 116.3 118.8 121.5 124.3 127.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 9 9 8 9 11 12 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 43 41 35 30 26 23 18 12 8 5 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 19. 24. 27. 29. 30. 29. 28. 27. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 13. 13. 13. 11. 8. 7. 5. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -8. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 18. 25. 32. 35. 33. 31. 26. 21. 17. 14. 14. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.9 104.5 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP962025 INVEST 07/05/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.82 7.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 34.9 to 8.5 0.69 4.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 73.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -6.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.21 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.31 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.24 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.6% 15.6% 0.0% 0.0% 19.8% 17.3% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 2.6% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 1.8% 2.0% 6.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 8.2% 5.5% 0.1% 0.1% 7.2% 6.5% 2.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% SDCON: .6% 7.1% 4.2% .5% 0% 4.1% 4.2% 2.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962025 INVEST 07/05/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##