* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962025 07/05/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 44 50 54 55 51 46 41 37 31 27 22 20 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 44 50 54 55 51 46 41 37 31 27 22 20 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 30 30 30 29 28 25 23 20 17 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 12 11 9 9 3 5 8 9 9 6 9 7 10 9 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -4 -2 0 -1 0 -1 -2 -3 -3 -2 -1 1 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 23 27 31 37 55 90 96 110 108 139 181 220 221 230 231 227 253 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.6 28.2 27.7 27.3 26.3 26.3 24.8 24.4 23.7 23.1 23.2 22.9 22.7 22.8 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 150 146 141 136 126 127 111 108 101 94 96 92 90 91 98 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.9 -1.1 -1.0 -0.7 -0.7 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 6 5 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 700-500 MB RH 71 71 73 75 77 77 77 74 73 66 66 61 62 55 53 47 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 7 7 8 9 12 12 12 12 12 11 9 8 7 6 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -7 -3 1 6 13 23 24 29 20 19 3 1 -2 8 5 12 200 MB DIV 15 -4 8 11 -2 33 5 1 8 -8 -14 -3 -15 -9 -13 0 -4 700-850 TADV 1 3 0 0 2 1 2 3 0 3 7 2 4 2 1 5 1 LAND (KM) 468 500 525 584 639 786 838 911 1028 1153 1318 1465 1658 1878 2122 1904 1601 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.1 15.4 15.5 15.7 15.8 16.0 16.4 16.9 17.5 18.1 18.7 19.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.6 106.7 107.7 108.7 109.6 111.4 113.2 115.3 117.5 120.0 122.7 125.4 128.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 9 9 9 9 11 11 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 38 31 25 22 20 17 11 8 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 18. 22. 25. 26. 26. 24. 22. 19. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 25. 29. 30. 26. 21. 16. 12. 6. 2. -3. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.7 105.6 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP962025 INVEST 07/05/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.79 6.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 34.9 to 8.5 0.66 4.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 77.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.19 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.23 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.33 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.6% 13.5% 0.0% 0.0% 17.4% 15.9% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 12.2% 5.1% 2.5% 2.0% 4.8% 5.0% 12.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 0.6% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 11.2% 6.2% 0.8% 0.7% 7.6% 7.2% 4.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% SDCON: .9% 8.1% 4.1% .9% .3% 4.3% 4.6% 2.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962025 INVEST 07/05/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##