* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962025 07/05/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 38 43 46 48 46 41 35 32 27 22 17 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 38 43 46 48 46 41 35 32 27 22 17 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 28 28 27 25 22 20 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 16 15 15 15 10 9 7 8 8 9 14 16 15 20 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -2 0 0 2 0 0 -3 -2 -4 0 -3 0 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 30 29 44 61 64 80 87 102 133 172 211 206 229 220 259 254 269 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.4 28.0 27.4 26.9 25.2 25.4 23.7 23.1 22.7 22.8 22.2 22.4 22.7 23.3 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 148 144 138 133 116 118 101 95 91 92 86 88 91 98 108 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) -1.1 -1.0 -0.7 -0.6 -0.5 -0.2 -0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 6 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 700-500 MB RH 70 71 73 76 76 77 75 74 71 69 63 61 58 52 46 40 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 8 10 11 11 11 10 9 6 6 5 4 2 1 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -10 -2 -1 0 21 21 26 11 2 -20 -12 -5 0 5 3 -5 200 MB DIV 4 3 16 -1 16 67 -6 12 -4 -17 5 -25 -4 -22 0 -17 -8 700-850 TADV 3 1 1 2 1 0 2 0 -1 1 5 4 7 8 2 13 1 LAND (KM) 466 482 516 561 623 716 759 889 1030 1237 1428 1661 1932 2048 1714 1359 1004 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.5 15.8 16.1 16.3 16.7 17.2 17.7 18.3 18.8 19.4 19.8 20.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.2 107.1 108.1 109.0 109.9 111.8 114.0 116.5 119.2 122.4 125.6 128.8 132.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 9 9 10 12 13 14 15 15 15 15 15 16 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 33 27 21 18 16 11 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 17. 20. 22. 23. 23. 20. 18. 15. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. -0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 18. 21. 23. 21. 16. 10. 7. 2. -3. -8. -12. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.1 106.2 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP962025 INVEST 07/05/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.77 5.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.0 34.9 to 8.5 0.49 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 75.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -5.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.20 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.19 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.37 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.4% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.1% 13.6% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 7.4% 2.2% 1.1% 0.7% 2.0% 3.0% 7.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 8.8% 4.7% 0.4% 0.2% 5.8% 5.6% 2.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 7.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 3.0% 1.0% SDCON: .8% 7.9% 3.8% .7% .1% 3.9% 4.3% 1.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962025 INVEST 07/05/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##