* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962025 07/06/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 34 37 39 40 38 33 29 26 21 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 34 37 39 40 38 33 29 26 21 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 25 23 21 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 16 17 16 15 12 10 9 9 9 5 10 9 14 10 14 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 1 0 0 -1 -2 -3 -6 -3 -3 -3 -2 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 31 45 58 61 70 85 98 111 138 165 211 216 227 228 243 278 262 SST (C) 28.7 28.3 27.8 27.3 27.2 25.7 26.4 23.4 23.3 22.6 22.7 22.2 22.3 22.4 22.5 23.3 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 147 142 136 135 120 129 98 97 90 91 85 86 88 89 98 108 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) -1.1 -0.8 -0.7 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 700-500 MB RH 70 72 75 76 76 77 74 74 67 67 61 62 54 51 43 39 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 10 11 11 10 9 8 7 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 2 3 3 16 21 10 21 11 -2 -13 -6 -7 1 0 -2 -7 200 MB DIV -7 14 -8 9 51 15 -5 18 -2 1 -2 -11 -7 -16 0 -7 -2 700-850 TADV 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 -1 1 5 3 7 2 6 4 0 2 LAND (KM) 518 546 593 647 712 744 808 952 1115 1289 1478 1712 1962 2017 1693 1338 962 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.7 16.0 16.2 16.4 16.8 17.5 18.1 18.7 19.2 19.8 20.1 20.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.4 108.4 109.3 110.1 111.0 112.9 115.2 117.8 120.7 123.6 126.6 129.6 132.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 9 10 12 13 14 14 14 14 14 15 15 16 17 HEAT CONTENT 27 21 18 17 15 8 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 19. 21. 21. 20. 17. 14. 12. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -14. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 12. 14. 15. 13. 8. 4. 1. -4. -9. -12. -15. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.3 107.4 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP962025 INVEST 07/06/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.72 5.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.7 34.9 to 8.5 0.42 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 75.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -5.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.22 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.16 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.41 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.1% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 13.1% 12.5% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 2.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.7% 1.4% 4.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 6.0% 3.7% 0.1% 0.0% 4.6% 4.6% 1.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: .1% 5.5% 2.8% .5% 0% 2.8% 2.8% .8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962025 INVEST 07/06/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##