* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP962025 09/16/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 37 47 58 66 75 72 69 65 62 57 53 48 40 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 37 47 58 66 75 72 69 65 62 57 53 48 40 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 32 36 42 47 48 46 42 39 36 33 29 26 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 15 18 18 11 20 17 16 20 17 13 8 8 11 24 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 4 5 3 6 7 10 3 5 0 0 -3 -1 5 2 3 SHEAR DIR 42 36 41 48 55 72 72 69 66 89 111 139 164 231 222 217 227 SST (C) 29.5 29.3 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.8 29.5 28.8 28.2 27.3 26.4 25.2 24.3 23.2 22.5 21.8 POT. INT. (KT) 158 156 155 155 157 159 164 160 153 147 137 127 114 105 94 87 80 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -52.8 -53.2 -53.5 -52.6 -53.0 -51.9 -52.4 -52.2 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -51.8 -51.8 -51.6 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 3 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 84 81 82 82 81 80 79 74 74 71 69 62 57 51 46 40 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 14 14 14 18 22 24 26 24 24 23 22 20 18 16 13 850 MB ENV VOR 16 19 21 16 24 25 39 56 63 73 91 83 71 58 44 42 16 200 MB DIV 86 98 108 110 100 108 75 93 70 9 -9 -12 3 -6 1 11 14 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -9 -13 -10 -6 -7 -4 -9 -5 -2 0 1 4 6 8 1 LAND (KM) 699 707 712 701 672 645 643 712 709 752 840 901 962 962 929 897 840 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.5 11.8 12.2 12.7 13.6 14.8 16.0 17.1 18.1 19.0 19.9 20.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.1 103.7 104.4 105.0 105.6 106.9 108.7 110.7 112.8 115.1 117.3 119.1 120.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 9 11 11 12 12 10 9 8 9 9 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 30 30 31 35 39 43 36 28 22 16 11 6 5 5 5 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 22. 28. 31. 33. 34. 34. 33. 31. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -4. -3. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 2. 5. 11. 15. 21. 18. 17. 15. 12. 8. 6. 4. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 22. 33. 41. 50. 47. 44. 40. 37. 32. 28. 23. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.3 103.1 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP962025 INVEST 09/16/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.85 7.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.22 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 19.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 -5.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 100.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.66 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.29 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.2 to -2.6 0.77 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.0% 14.6% 0.0% 0.0% 18.9% 17.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 2.4% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 1.5% 2.7% 6.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.1% 7.5% 5.4% 0.2% 0.0% 6.8% 6.8% 2.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 13.0% 5.0% SDCON: 0.5% 6.7% 4.2% 0.6% 0.5% 4.9% 9.9% 3.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962025 INVEST 09/16/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##