* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP962025 09/16/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 35 40 52 65 75 80 76 74 71 67 62 58 52 45 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 35 40 52 65 75 80 76 74 71 67 62 58 52 45 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 36 43 50 52 51 49 48 46 44 40 35 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 17 17 10 11 13 16 19 16 15 10 5 9 9 13 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 3 1 1 8 4 6 0 -2 -2 -1 -3 -2 2 2 3 SHEAR DIR 46 43 43 51 61 77 80 77 76 95 103 118 171 226 236 219 214 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.5 30.0 29.1 28.8 28.0 27.6 27.3 26.7 25.8 25.1 23.5 23.0 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 161 162 160 166 157 153 144 140 135 129 120 113 97 91 86 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.8 -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -52.7 -52.4 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -51.9 -51.8 -51.6 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 3 2 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 80 81 82 82 81 80 78 72 71 67 66 59 56 50 44 38 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 13 14 15 19 23 25 27 25 26 25 23 21 20 18 14 850 MB ENV VOR 14 21 17 26 29 50 60 75 97 85 95 91 82 68 69 49 31 200 MB DIV 87 82 89 86 109 106 75 62 48 4 -7 23 32 -9 -16 -7 0 700-850 TADV -4 -7 -11 -11 -8 -6 -5 -10 -12 -4 -2 0 1 4 1 7 4 LAND (KM) 624 607 601 580 567 586 688 744 812 922 989 1028 1059 1032 1002 965 914 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.4 12.9 13.4 13.9 15.0 16.1 16.8 17.3 17.8 18.2 18.7 19.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.0 103.5 104.3 105.1 106.0 108.1 110.5 112.9 115.0 117.0 118.5 119.6 120.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 8 9 10 11 12 12 11 10 9 6 6 7 8 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 34 36 38 41 44 37 28 23 19 16 11 9 7 5 5 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 7. 14. 22. 27. 30. 31. 32. 33. 32. 31. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 17. 22. 18. 19. 16. 13. 9. 8. 5. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 3. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 10. 15. 27. 40. 50. 55. 51. 49. 46. 42. 37. 33. 27. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.0 103.0 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP962025 INVEST 09/16/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.88 7.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.34 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 24.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 -6.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.61 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.34 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.6 0.34 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.0% 14.9% 0.0% 0.0% 19.5% 17.9% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 6.5% 2.1% 1.2% 0.2% 4.8% 8.0% 9.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 4.4% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.5% Consensus: 0.2% 9.6% 6.1% 0.5% 0.1% 8.2% 8.7% 3.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 7.0% 18.0% 7.0% SDCON: 0.6% 7.8% 4.5% 0.7% 0.5% 7.6% 13.3% 5.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962025 INVEST 09/16/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##