* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP962025 09/17/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 34 41 48 54 57 57 54 51 47 41 35 27 19 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 34 41 48 54 57 57 54 51 47 41 35 27 19 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 27 29 31 32 31 30 27 24 20 16 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 19 20 16 12 10 7 9 11 16 22 25 27 23 30 27 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 3 2 6 2 11 5 1 2 2 1 1 6 0 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 48 48 52 47 37 45 34 73 153 173 177 188 190 194 204 233 226 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.9 29.2 28.2 26.8 26.0 25.0 23.6 23.0 22.6 22.3 22.1 21.9 POT. INT. (KT) 158 160 163 163 163 165 158 148 133 124 113 98 91 87 84 81 78 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -52.5 -52.9 -51.8 -52.1 -51.9 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -53.3 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 7 6 5 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 82 82 82 79 80 80 75 70 65 62 55 50 45 41 35 30 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 11 17 20 34 43 68 72 99 82 87 77 66 61 49 7 -20 200 MB DIV 79 74 68 91 70 73 88 42 28 -18 10 3 12 24 -3 3 -20 700-850 TADV -5 -11 -10 -7 -9 -3 -8 -2 3 12 15 16 11 8 10 7 2 LAND (KM) 608 583 557 525 502 514 621 613 751 903 1023 1116 1152 1133 1075 968 866 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.8 13.4 14.0 14.7 16.0 17.4 18.6 19.5 20.1 20.8 21.4 22.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.3 103.8 104.5 105.3 106.2 108.3 110.9 113.7 116.6 119.3 121.7 123.5 124.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 9 10 11 13 14 15 14 13 10 8 6 7 8 7 4 HEAT CONTENT 35 38 41 43 43 34 24 14 9 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 6. 14. 21. 26. 29. 29. 29. 26. 24. 21. 18. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 16. 23. 29. 32. 32. 29. 26. 22. 16. 10. 2. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.3 103.3 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP962025 INVEST 09/17/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.90 8.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.22 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 26.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 -6.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.54 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.35 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.6 0.61 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.9% 15.5% 0.0% 0.0% 19.5% 19.2% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 14.1% 4.1% 2.4% 0.5% 6.5% 9.6% 10.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 6.6% 2.3% 0.5% 0.0% 2.0% 1.4% 0.9% Consensus: 0.4% 13.9% 7.3% 1.0% 0.2% 9.3% 10.1% 3.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 4.0% 10.0% 1.0% SDCON: 0.2% 8.9% 4.6% 1.0% 0.1% 6.6% 10.0% 2.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962025 INVEST 09/17/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##