* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP962025 09/17/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 30 34 37 44 51 59 59 56 49 43 38 31 25 18 N/A V (KT) LAND 25 26 30 34 37 44 51 59 59 56 49 43 38 31 25 18 N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 31 34 35 34 30 26 22 19 15 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 19 18 15 14 13 16 18 17 15 14 15 21 25 33 28 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 1 2 6 7 7 1 2 0 -2 -2 0 0 -2 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 50 54 70 73 67 75 98 93 119 144 172 187 199 203 214 223 226 SST (C) 29.4 29.6 29.5 29.6 30.0 29.5 28.8 28.0 26.6 25.5 24.2 23.3 23.0 22.8 22.8 23.1 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 158 160 160 161 165 161 154 146 131 119 105 95 92 90 89 91 86 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -53.7 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 3 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 81 83 81 80 80 73 70 66 63 62 55 51 44 42 38 31 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 12 14 14 16 17 20 19 18 15 13 12 9 7 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 13 21 22 33 38 52 67 69 84 87 72 54 37 28 24 -15 -42 200 MB DIV 71 71 85 87 79 75 88 40 -31 -11 13 14 11 -1 13 5 -47 700-850 TADV -10 -6 -3 -4 -5 0 1 0 0 0 3 4 8 5 3 -4 -3 LAND (KM) 629 605 567 554 552 575 602 644 772 933 1061 1185 1287 1343 1212 1072 1005 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.2 13.8 14.4 15.0 16.5 17.8 18.9 19.8 20.5 21.1 21.8 22.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.5 105.2 105.8 106.6 107.5 109.5 111.9 114.5 117.3 120.0 122.5 124.7 126.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 10 11 13 13 14 14 13 12 10 9 9 8 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 37 40 43 43 39 29 20 13 7 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 6. 13. 20. 25. 27. 27. 27. 25. 22. 19. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -5. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 12. 13. 11. 7. 4. 2. -1. -2. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 5. 9. 12. 19. 26. 34. 34. 31. 24. 18. 13. 6. -0. -7. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.7 104.5 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP962025 INVEST 09/17/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.89 8.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.22 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 29.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 -6.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.55 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.36 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.6 0.63 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.3% 15.3% 0.0% 0.0% 18.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 2.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 1.4% 1.3% 1.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 7.6% 5.3% 0.1% 0.0% 6.6% 0.4% 0.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 10.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 14.0% 12.0% 2.0% SDCON: 0.5% 8.8% 4.6% 0.5% 0.5% 10.3% 6.2% 1.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962025 INVEST 09/17/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##