* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP962025 09/17/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 30 35 38 42 43 41 36 31 26 21 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 30 35 38 42 43 41 36 31 26 21 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 26 25 24 22 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 19 20 20 21 20 15 15 10 10 14 24 27 44 49 41 56 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 2 8 8 3 7 2 0 0 0 -1 5 2 4 9 -4 SHEAR DIR 61 58 68 67 64 88 77 102 125 165 190 198 206 200 208 221 222 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.8 30.0 29.5 28.7 27.5 26.1 24.6 23.7 23.0 22.2 21.6 20.4 18.0 19.8 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 160 163 166 161 153 140 126 110 100 92 85 80 69 65 66 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.2 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -52.3 -52.7 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -53.5 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 6 4 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 700-500 MB RH 82 80 79 80 78 74 72 67 65 63 59 54 49 45 44 40 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 13 13 13 14 13 13 13 13 11 9 6 5 3 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 15 21 27 31 41 52 38 64 60 40 21 33 4 -11 -11 59 200 MB DIV 71 77 76 60 45 78 69 15 -15 -12 12 7 18 34 11 34 64 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -5 -5 -5 -1 -5 0 0 1 2 6 7 -1 -45 -24 13 LAND (KM) 654 641 609 594 565 580 571 590 703 824 896 922 894 704 288 -176 -682 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.2 13.8 14.4 15.1 16.7 18.1 19.4 20.3 21.3 22.3 23.7 25.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.4 106.1 106.6 107.2 107.9 109.7 111.9 114.3 116.9 119.4 121.5 123.0 123.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 9 11 11 13 13 13 12 11 9 13 17 21 23 26 HEAT CONTENT 39 42 43 41 37 27 19 12 7 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 6. 13. 19. 24. 25. 25. 24. 21. 17. 14. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. -1. -6. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. -0. -2. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -8. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 10. 14. 17. 18. 16. 11. 6. 1. -4. -10. -13. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.8 105.4 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP962025 INVEST 09/17/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.89 7.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.07 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 30.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 -5.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.49 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.36 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.6 0.49 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.9% 12.8% 0.0% 0.0% 15.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 6.1% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 5.4% 0.2% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 4.0% 6.0% 1.0% SDCON: 0.0% 5.0% 3.1% 0.5% 0.0% 4.7% 3.1% 0.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962025 INVEST 09/17/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##