* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP962025 09/18/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 29 31 32 31 26 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 29 31 32 31 26 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 24 23 20 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 22 21 22 20 19 14 12 7 14 20 35 42 50 51 41 31 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 2 1 3 0 -1 -2 -2 -1 -1 3 5 2 3 5 3 SHEAR DIR 72 68 79 82 78 83 105 142 179 211 211 221 212 216 219 206 192 SST (C) 29.8 29.3 29.2 28.8 28.1 28.0 26.5 25.4 23.9 22.8 22.1 21.8 20.7 19.6 18.1 15.1 15.6 POT. INT. (KT) 165 159 157 153 146 145 129 118 101 89 83 81 70 64 63 63 63 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.0 -52.6 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -51.9 -51.7 -51.7 -52.5 -53.6 -54.1 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 1 0 4 0 1 700-500 MB RH 80 78 76 71 69 65 64 62 56 53 48 46 43 43 41 42 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 15 15 13 12 10 10 8 8 6 5 5 5 6 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 40 47 53 63 62 61 40 38 17 21 2 -2 32 51 56 78 200 MB DIV 61 53 38 7 11 -4 1 -1 4 -2 20 8 0 28 27 42 48 700-850 TADV -3 -6 -4 -4 -9 -3 -4 0 6 4 0 -9 -15 -21 -9 10 -12 LAND (KM) 575 600 654 663 646 691 779 860 886 885 790 617 370 72 -277 -543 -738 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.9 16.5 17.1 17.6 18.5 19.4 20.5 21.9 23.2 25.0 27.2 30.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.2 109.3 110.4 111.4 112.5 114.7 116.9 119.1 121.0 122.2 122.3 121.3 120.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 12 11 11 11 12 11 10 8 10 14 16 17 17 17 15 HEAT CONTENT 36 31 27 24 20 14 9 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 15 CX,CY: -11/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 423 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 6. 11. 16. 18. 18. 16. 13. 8. 3. 1. 9. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 3. -4. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 6. 1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -16. -15. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.2 108.2 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP962025 INVEST 09/18/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.85 6.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.10 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 55.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 -4.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.33 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.24 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.2 to -2.6 0.74 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.2% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 12.1% 13.1% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 2.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 4.5% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% 4.1% 4.5% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 4.2% 2.6% 0.5% 0.0% 2.5% 3.2% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962025 INVEST 09/18/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##