* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP962025 09/18/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 25 26 26 26 24 20 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 25 26 26 26 24 20 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 23 21 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 25 23 20 17 17 8 7 10 19 30 43 47 50 43 30 23 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 2 2 3 0 -1 0 0 3 4 6 5 0 3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 65 74 74 74 78 78 142 168 188 205 216 216 214 213 213 222 240 SST (C) 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.3 27.8 26.9 25.2 23.6 23.3 22.3 22.0 21.7 20.6 21.3 20.7 15.6 16.7 POT. INT. (KT) 161 158 155 148 143 134 116 99 94 85 83 80 69 76 69 61 61 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -52.4 -52.1 -51.9 -51.5 -51.5 -51.9 -52.9 -54.0 -54.7 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 1 1 2 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 78 77 72 69 68 65 64 62 57 53 47 49 48 47 40 40 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 14 13 11 9 8 8 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 5 850 MB ENV VOR 39 44 49 61 60 47 32 28 13 19 16 0 17 29 41 36 65 200 MB DIV 52 40 7 3 12 -6 -11 -7 -1 14 0 20 -2 20 30 25 -2 700-850 TADV -9 -5 -3 -6 -6 0 0 6 4 -3 -8 0 -8 4 -3 -1 2 LAND (KM) 575 610 642 602 585 648 693 742 738 651 452 204 -5 -210 -450 -602 -787 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.5 17.2 17.8 18.4 19.5 20.7 22.1 23.4 25.1 27.0 29.4 32.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.9 109.9 110.8 111.9 112.9 115.1 117.2 119.2 120.5 120.8 119.5 117.8 116.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 12 12 12 12 12 11 8 9 13 14 14 15 12 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 33 27 24 20 15 10 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 12 CX,CY: -8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 501 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 5. 10. 13. 14. 13. 11. 7. 1. -4. -9. -5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. 8. 10. 6. -2. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -8. -9. -10. -14. -22. -26. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.8 108.9 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP962025 INVEST 09/18/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.83 1.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 0.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.09 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 66.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.27 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.22 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.20 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.2 to -2.6 0.82 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 8.9% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 9.3% 10.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 3.1% 3.7% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 2.5% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% 2.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962025 INVEST 09/18/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##