* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP962025 09/18/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 23 22 22 21 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 23 22 22 21 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 21 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 16 15 13 9 6 7 15 27 45 52 55 53 54 53 43 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 8 6 5 4 4 2 5 8 11 8 2 0 1 -2 5 1 SHEAR DIR 52 52 53 58 65 104 153 188 205 212 222 222 232 251 260 278 286 SST (C) 29.1 28.7 28.6 28.2 27.6 26.2 24.3 23.1 22.6 22.1 31.4 31.5 31.6 31.1 29.6 29.8 21.2 POT. INT. (KT) 156 152 151 147 141 126 106 93 89 85 173 172 173 173 163 166 78 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.8 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -51.7 -51.2 -51.4 -52.0 -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -52.7 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 0 0 2 5 5 5 4 6 3 6 700-500 MB RH 75 73 73 71 68 67 64 63 60 54 55 50 52 51 49 50 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 13 11 11 9 8 7 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 49 54 41 36 27 12 23 19 27 18 41 19 26 10 23 0 200 MB DIV 31 35 18 12 10 11 -14 -4 3 25 12 14 7 2 18 19 16 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 2 1 2 6 1 -6 -18 -3 0 0 7 0 59 29 LAND (KM) 511 512 474 410 387 426 448 412 295 86 -3 -279 -560 -860 -999 -941 -829 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.9 18.7 19.5 20.3 21.7 23.2 24.6 26.5 29.0 31.4 33.3 35.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.2 109.8 110.6 111.5 112.5 114.5 116.2 117.4 117.6 116.0 113.6 111.5 109.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 12 12 12 10 9 11 16 15 12 13 15 16 19 22 HEAT CONTENT 27 23 19 15 11 6 5 4 4 4 56 11 10 38 8 8 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 4. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 1. -2. -3. 0. 6. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 12. 16. 20. 21. 14. 1. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -13. -16. -16. -15. -14. -13. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -9. -6. -2. -1. -3. -9. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.1 109.2 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP962025 INVEST 09/18/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.80 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.21 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 67.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -4.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.27 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.41 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.16 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.9 2.2 to -2.6 0.85 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 8.7% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.6% 11.6% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.1% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 3.6% 3.9% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 2.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 1.8% 1.9% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962025 INVEST 09/18/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##