* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP962025 09/19/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 28 28 27 23 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 28 28 27 23 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 30 29 28 25 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 18 17 13 11 7 10 16 33 45 51 54 49 49 46 44 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 3 3 4 3 1 1 6 7 8 9 2 0 -2 3 -3 3 SHEAR DIR 59 63 59 64 81 106 160 189 211 222 220 226 236 247 259 271 286 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.3 27.8 27.0 25.4 24.2 22.7 22.6 22.2 31.6 31.6 31.6 31.3 29.8 24.5 21.2 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 148 143 134 117 104 89 89 87 173 172 172 172 165 111 78 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -51.9 -52.2 -51.9 -51.8 -51.5 -51.2 -51.4 -52.0 -51.7 -52.3 -52.3 -53.1 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 3 2 0 1 2 7 4 5 2 6 1 5 700-500 MB RH 71 70 70 67 64 65 59 62 55 53 55 53 51 48 45 47 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 50 39 34 27 19 -1 17 24 20 32 32 12 0 -5 9 -6 200 MB DIV 30 5 -4 0 11 7 -16 -7 17 12 8 -3 5 13 -26 15 6 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -1 0 0 2 2 -2 -15 -11 -6 3 0 0 6 45 94 LAND (KM) 546 528 470 428 438 469 499 442 256 16 -97 -399 -669 -913 -999 -999 -932 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.2 18.9 19.7 20.4 21.7 23.1 24.5 26.6 29.2 31.9 34.1 35.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.9 110.5 111.4 112.3 113.3 115.2 116.7 117.7 117.2 115.0 112.5 110.6 108.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 12 11 11 9 9 14 18 15 13 12 11 15 19 24 HEAT CONTENT 24 21 17 12 10 6 4 4 4 4 25 10 10 30 7 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 0. -4. -8. -10. -7. -3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 11. 16. 19. 21. 14. 1. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -7. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -16. -16. -14. -13. -12. -11. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -7. -12. -15. -18. -16. -14. -11. -10. -12. -19. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.5 109.9 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP962025 INVEST 09/19/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.72 5.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.21 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 104.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -4.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.20 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.13 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.2 to -2.6 0.82 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 11.0% 9.6% 7.3% 0.0% 12.6% 12.6% 5.8% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 3.7% 3.2% 2.4% 0.0% 4.2% 4.2% 1.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.0% 2.8% 2.1% 1.2% 0.0% 2.1% 2.1% 0.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962025 INVEST 09/19/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##