* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP962025 09/20/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 27 24 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 24 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 26 24 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 19 13 10 12 14 24 30 42 46 33 25 16 11 11 13 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 2 0 -1 0 4 10 13 9 10 8 3 -2 -6 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 82 94 102 109 128 166 191 203 209 216 213 192 199 232 241 257 315 SST (C) 27.2 26.3 25.7 25.2 24.7 24.3 22.8 22.6 21.7 22.7 21.1 15.9 16.1 16.6 16.6 16.2 16.4 POT. INT. (KT) 135 126 120 115 109 105 90 90 81 91 75 62 59 56 57 59 60 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -52.2 -52.1 -51.8 -51.8 -51.6 -51.6 -51.3 -51.4 -51.8 -52.2 -52.8 -53.1 -53.7 -53.5 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 3 2 1 1 4 1 5 0 2 0 2 0 2 700-500 MB RH 64 63 63 58 55 53 51 49 50 48 41 38 39 39 41 44 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 10 9 8 7 6 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 28 23 16 13 13 15 33 13 21 30 57 43 29 17 -9 30 200 MB DIV -1 5 -7 -17 -10 -12 6 13 27 35 0 31 2 -21 6 23 27 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 4 2 0 -2 -10 -6 -2 -5 2 0 3 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 561 568 575 576 572 602 480 275 49 -107 -276 -424 -458 -458 -468 -531 -613 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.4 20.1 20.7 21.3 22.5 24.2 26.3 29.4 32.6 35.8 38.6 40.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.3 114.0 114.7 115.5 116.2 117.5 117.9 117.2 116.0 115.9 116.4 117.5 118.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 9 9 8 10 14 16 16 16 12 5 1 2 5 8 HEAT CONTENT 13 11 8 7 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -10. -12. -10. -11. -10. -4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 12. 15. 19. 21. 20. 14. 5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -0. -2. -4. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -11. -14. -14. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -13. -19. -21. -20. -20. -17. -12. -15. -20. -22. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.9 113.3 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP962025 INVEST 09/20/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.52 2.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.38 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 167.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.72 -3.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.13 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.06 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.4 58.2 to 0.0 0.75 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.2 to -2.6 0.82 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 7.1% 6.3% 4.3% 0.0% 7.1% 7.2% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 2.4% 2.1% 1.4% 0.0% 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962025 INVEST 09/20/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##