* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP962025 09/20/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 22 21 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 24 22 21 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 23 21 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 15 12 12 12 17 27 37 45 46 31 20 11 7 9 21 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 -1 -1 1 5 8 12 7 10 3 1 -5 -5 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 94 100 109 122 142 174 188 202 213 222 211 196 219 270 354 47 52 SST (C) 26.6 26.0 25.9 25.1 24.5 24.0 23.6 22.9 29.4 23.8 21.0 16.4 15.4 15.3 15.8 18.1 19.1 POT. INT. (KT) 128 123 122 113 107 102 99 93 161 102 73 61 57 57 58 57 56 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.2 -52.0 -51.7 -51.7 -51.7 -51.4 -51.2 -51.1 -51.5 -51.8 -51.8 -52.3 -53.0 -52.7 -53.3 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 3 2 1 3 3 3 1 1 0 1 0 2 1 700-500 MB RH 63 63 58 55 55 52 50 50 50 47 37 36 35 36 37 40 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 8 7 7 5 4 3 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 20 14 12 14 12 16 33 15 10 14 45 37 26 12 4 16 200 MB DIV 3 -11 -11 6 -1 -3 5 20 43 9 21 10 -11 -8 -34 -18 24 700-850 TADV 0 1 3 2 3 0 -6 -11 -4 6 -1 3 0 1 4 0 0 LAND (KM) 531 523 534 525 534 522 352 95 -21 -233 -372 -493 -531 -558 -586 -608 -621 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 20.0 20.6 21.2 21.7 23.2 25.0 27.5 30.6 33.9 36.6 38.9 40.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.5 114.0 114.7 115.4 116.1 117.2 117.0 115.9 114.9 115.0 115.9 116.8 117.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 9 9 9 8 11 16 17 15 13 10 3 2 4 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 12 9 7 6 6 4 4 4 21 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 725 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. -2. -7. -8. -5. -2. 2. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 15. 18. 21. 23. 21. 15. 6. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -3. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. -13. -12. -10. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -5. -8. -12. -16. -15. -13. -14. -12. -6. -7. -10. -16. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 19.4 113.5 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP962025 INVEST 09/20/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.54 3.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.45 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 151.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 -3.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.15 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.05 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.6 58.2 to 0.0 0.78 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.6 0.67 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.6% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 7.4% 7.4% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.6% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962025 INVEST 09/20/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##