* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972025 07/25/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 37 42 50 57 60 61 59 57 54 53 51 48 45 43 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 37 42 50 57 60 61 59 57 54 53 51 48 45 43 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 33 37 42 46 48 48 47 46 45 42 39 36 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 12 15 17 20 17 17 19 11 3 4 5 9 11 17 22 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 -2 -5 -9 -7 -6 -4 4 5 6 4 -1 -3 -5 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 350 28 65 76 92 113 103 109 108 102 238 271 307 318 304 299 304 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.7 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 147 145 142 139 141 143 144 144 145 145 142 145 145 146 147 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.2 -52.7 -53.3 -53.0 -53.4 -53.1 -53.0 -52.5 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 67 70 73 73 74 73 70 63 60 57 59 60 65 65 64 62 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 11 12 12 13 12 10 9 8 6 5 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR -2 6 20 26 26 13 12 10 14 17 18 7 5 0 1 13 17 200 MB DIV 74 96 98 114 121 136 113 53 -26 -42 3 12 3 2 11 29 31 700-850 TADV -7 -9 -6 -3 -1 -1 -2 0 -1 0 0 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -3 LAND (KM) 2084 1956 1840 1743 1658 1531 1437 1348 1276 1183 1076 968 906 939 1084 1315 1524 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.7 10.8 10.9 11.1 11.3 11.2 11.1 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 137.7 139.0 140.2 141.2 142.0 143.3 144.5 145.7 147.0 148.4 150.2 152.4 154.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 9 8 6 6 6 7 8 9 12 13 14 15 17 19 HEAT CONTENT 23 23 23 22 22 22 21 21 22 23 25 27 27 30 33 37 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 10. 17. 24. 30. 34. 38. 42. 44. 46. 46. 47. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -8. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 7. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 17. 25. 32. 35. 36. 34. 32. 29. 28. 26. 24. 20. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.6 137.7 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP972025 INVEST 07/25/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.75 6.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 34.9 to 8.5 0.53 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 67.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -6.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 100.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.66 4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.19 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.56 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 24.7% 17.8% 0.0% 0.0% 23.9% 24.5% 0.0% Logistic: 16.6% 52.4% 24.0% 16.0% 11.3% 17.1% 28.0% 19.9% Bayesian: 7.2% 6.7% 3.2% 1.1% 0.2% 1.0% 0.4% 0.3% Consensus: 7.9% 27.9% 15.0% 5.7% 3.8% 14.0% 17.6% 6.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972025 INVEST 07/25/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##