* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972025 07/25/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 37 41 49 56 60 59 55 50 47 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 37 41 49 56 60 59 55 50 47 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 34 39 44 48 48 45 40 36 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 11 14 17 14 12 15 16 8 6 9 10 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -4 -8 -9 -4 -3 2 7 8 5 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 33 58 72 75 87 109 128 143 170 254 291 280 289 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.5 27.3 26.8 26.7 26.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 144 142 144 145 145 142 138 137 132 131 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.8 -53.3 -53.4 -52.9 -53.4 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 6 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 72 73 74 70 69 63 60 52 51 51 54 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 10 11 12 13 13 13 12 10 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 20 25 29 26 21 10 13 8 17 11 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 90 89 97 101 118 164 84 21 -61 -24 -6 1 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -8 -8 -5 -4 -1 -3 -2 -3 -2 -4 -1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1892 1782 1674 1580 1488 1350 1194 1067 939 824 770 740 718 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 139.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 9 8 8 9 8 8 10 10 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 23 22 22 22 21 20 20 21 21 19 18 19 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 10. 18. 25. 30. 35. 38. 40. 41. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -0. -2. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 16. 24. 31. 35. 34. 30. 25. 22. 18. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.7 139.7 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP972025 INVEST 07/25/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.73 6.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 34.9 to 8.5 0.63 4.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 70.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -6.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.65 4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.18 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.64 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.6% 17.6% 0.0% 0.0% 25.0% 28.4% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 7.2% 2.3% 1.0% 0.7% 2.8% 19.1% 11.8% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 0.4% 10.4% 6.7% 0.4% 0.2% 9.3% 15.8% 4.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 5.0% SDCON: .7% 8.2% 4.8% .7% .1% 5.1% 8.4% 4.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972025 INVEST 07/25/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##