* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX EP062026 07/19/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 44 50 64 79 93 101 106 106 106 104 98 91 87 82 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 44 50 64 79 93 101 106 106 106 104 98 91 87 82 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 38 41 50 65 81 95 102 103 98 90 80 73 67 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 16 14 12 10 3 2 8 13 10 10 7 7 6 7 7 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 0 0 0 -1 0 2 4 -3 -4 0 2 6 3 3 1 5 SHEAR DIR 15 20 19 6 341 35 169 32 36 22 356 349 4 304 287 276 276 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.3 28.7 28.6 28.4 27.9 26.7 27.1 26.9 26.5 26.6 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 164 164 163 163 158 151 150 148 143 131 136 133 129 131 118 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.1 -52.4 -52.1 -51.6 -51.9 -50.9 -51.4 -50.8 -51.2 -50.7 -51.0 -50.3 -50.5 -50.0 -50.8 -50.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.1 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 86 85 86 86 88 87 83 79 77 76 72 71 68 67 62 57 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 16 16 20 25 31 34 38 40 44 45 44 41 40 37 850 MB ENV VOR -31 -37 -34 -29 -33 -14 19 32 39 50 54 68 83 99 106 117 130 200 MB DIV 86 67 64 68 65 133 178 135 105 53 76 41 48 -6 21 6 25 700-850 TADV -5 -7 -6 -5 -1 -6 -4 -10 -3 2 8 0 11 11 10 8 4 LAND (KM) 967 1005 1039 1085 1141 1168 1155 1205 1266 1337 1460 1593 1735 1880 2034 2139 1851 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 11 11 11 11 10 8 8 8 9 11 12 11 11 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 32 32 30 34 37 42 34 20 17 10 9 3 6 6 3 5 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 42.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 17. 23. 28. 31. 33. 35. 36. 37. 37. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 11. 22. 29. 35. 36. 38. 36. 31. 26. 22. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 10. 5. 0. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 20. 34. 49. 63. 71. 76. 76. 76. 74. 68. 61. 57. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.1 108.4 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062026 SIX 07/19/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.88 7.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.51 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -4.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.91 -5.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.51 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 2.9 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 37.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.34 1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -47.1 -15.6 to -90.4 0.42 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 59% is 10.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 51% is 11.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.3% 23.4% 18.6% 14.8% 0.0% 23.9% 59.1% 51.5% Logistic: 3.4% 36.0% 10.1% 5.9% 3.1% 20.0% 45.8% 20.3% Bayesian: 0.5% 22.9% 5.5% 1.5% 0.4% 24.0% 40.1% 40.4% Consensus: 4.7% 27.4% 11.4% 7.4% 1.2% 22.6% 48.3% 37.4% DTOPS: 2.0% 28.0% 10.0% 1.0% 1.0% 7.0% 20.0% 42.0% SDCON: 3.3% 27.7% 10.7% 4.2% 1.1% 14.8% 34.1% 39.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062026 SIX 07/19/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##