* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX EP062026 07/19/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 39 44 49 64 77 89 99 104 103 101 96 87 83 80 74 V (KT) LAND 30 33 39 44 49 64 77 89 99 104 103 101 96 87 83 80 74 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 38 42 52 66 79 91 97 96 88 79 70 66 64 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 10 8 9 2 2 7 8 9 8 4 2 4 3 4 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 0 0 0 5 2 -2 -1 3 5 1 0 -3 -1 7 SHEAR DIR 26 18 7 342 346 328 351 32 61 340 2 353 238 179 167 228 223 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.7 30.0 29.9 29.7 28.5 28.4 28.4 27.7 27.1 26.3 26.4 25.9 26.2 25.3 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 164 163 163 165 164 162 149 148 148 140 135 127 129 123 126 117 106 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.3 -52.1 -51.7 -51.9 -51.5 -51.1 -51.2 -50.8 -50.8 -50.6 -50.5 -50.2 -50.5 -50.4 -50.6 -50.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.7 1.2 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 85 88 86 87 88 83 79 78 74 68 66 67 63 58 54 49 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 16 16 16 22 27 32 36 40 42 44 43 39 37 35 32 850 MB ENV VOR -40 -35 -27 -27 -20 5 38 46 59 73 90 101 118 119 127 123 143 200 MB DIV 73 67 59 57 81 161 141 129 63 75 26 8 -3 19 -5 3 -19 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -3 -2 -3 -6 -3 -6 3 5 4 10 11 4 3 3 3 LAND (KM) 987 1025 1079 1135 1151 1133 1144 1213 1261 1368 1496 1618 1748 1926 2111 1965 1730 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.4 12.8 13.1 13.4 14.5 15.6 16.1 16.8 17.1 17.2 17.6 18.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.0 111.2 112.4 113.4 114.3 116.1 117.7 119.1 120.7 122.4 124.2 126.3 128.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 11 10 10 10 8 8 9 8 10 11 12 12 12 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 31 30 36 40 42 42 19 16 12 7 4 2 2 0 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 42.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 21. 25. 28. 29. 31. 32. 32. 32. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 3. 7. 14. 23. 32. 38. 39. 39. 33. 26. 23. 19. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 10. 5. 0. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 9. 14. 19. 34. 47. 59. 69. 74. 73. 71. 66. 57. 53. 50. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.9 110.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062026 SIX 07/19/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.88 7.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.55 4.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -2.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.91 -5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.49 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 2.3 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 40.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.37 1.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -31.3 -15.6 to -90.4 0.21 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 49% is 8.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 54% is 11.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.0% 22.2% 18.4% 14.8% 0.0% 26.0% 49.0% 54.5% Logistic: 0.6% 8.5% 2.1% 1.0% 0.2% 5.3% 21.2% 7.7% Bayesian: 0.4% 13.0% 3.8% 0.8% 0.2% 1.1% 1.0% 8.8% Consensus: 3.7% 14.6% 8.1% 5.5% 0.1% 10.8% 23.8% 23.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 14.0% 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 7.0% 27.0% 42.0% SDCON: 2.3% 14.3% 6.5% 3.2% 0.5% 8.9% 25.4% 32.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062026 SIX 07/19/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##