* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX EP062026 07/19/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 43 51 71 83 95 100 101 99 95 87 81 76 72 68 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 43 51 71 83 95 100 101 99 95 87 81 76 72 68 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 35 39 51 66 80 88 90 88 80 72 67 64 61 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 12 11 7 2 6 11 4 14 6 1 2 1 4 3 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -2 -2 -4 4 5 -1 1 0 3 3 1 0 -1 2 9 SHEAR DIR 13 348 345 352 31 26 24 65 354 341 349 352 295 237 315 350 250 SST (C) 29.8 30.0 30.4 30.1 29.8 28.6 28.0 27.9 27.2 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.2 26.0 25.6 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 164 166 170 167 163 150 144 142 135 131 130 130 130 126 124 120 120 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.9 -51.5 -51.8 -52.0 -50.9 -51.4 -50.5 -50.9 -50.2 -50.6 -50.1 -50.4 -50.0 -50.6 -50.5 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 86 85 88 88 86 83 80 76 74 70 68 64 62 57 52 45 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 17 17 20 27 30 35 37 41 42 43 40 38 35 33 30 850 MB ENV VOR -37 -33 -27 -20 -10 21 33 43 49 59 84 109 108 121 119 129 130 200 MB DIV 56 72 90 127 144 181 114 84 77 57 20 18 -8 5 6 6 10 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -3 -5 -6 -3 0 0 4 2 3 7 3 2 -1 1 3 LAND (KM) 1038 1098 1167 1175 1171 1145 1189 1228 1297 1425 1566 1712 1873 2074 2044 1779 1526 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.5 12.7 13.2 13.7 15.0 15.9 16.6 16.9 17.1 17.4 17.9 18.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.2 112.3 113.4 114.4 115.4 117.0 118.6 120.0 121.3 123.1 125.4 127.8 130.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 9 8 7 7 10 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 31 34 43 48 44 19 12 10 5 3 2 4 3 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 55.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 20. 24. 26. 28. 29. 30. 30. 30. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 15. 26. 32. 37. 37. 35. 29. 24. 19. 16. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 14. 7. 0. -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 13. 21. 41. 53. 65. 70. 71. 69. 65. 57. 51. 46. 42. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.2 111.2 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062026 SIX 07/19/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.89 8.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.64 4.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 0.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.91 -6.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.64 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.37 1.8 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 45.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.42 2.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -47.3 -15.6 to -90.4 0.42 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 35% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 44% is 9.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.9% 23.3% 19.6% 16.1% 0.0% 25.8% 35.5% 44.4% Logistic: 1.5% 20.8% 6.3% 3.0% 1.5% 11.1% 16.7% 5.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 9.3% 5.4% 1.1% 0.2% 3.3% 5.9% 3.9% Consensus: 3.7% 17.8% 10.4% 6.7% 0.6% 13.4% 19.4% 17.8% DTOPS: 2.0% 31.0% 11.0% 2.0% 1.0% 12.0% 26.0% 24.0% SDCON: 2.8% 24.4% 10.7% 4.3% 0.8% 12.7% 22.7% 20.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062026 SIX 07/19/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##