* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FAUSTO EP062026 07/19/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 46 54 65 82 94 100 102 97 96 89 81 74 69 66 61 V (KT) LAND 35 40 46 54 65 82 94 100 102 97 96 89 81 74 69 66 61 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 42 46 52 67 82 94 96 91 83 74 66 61 59 56 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 11 7 8 5 8 8 13 7 4 1 2 3 6 3 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -4 -2 7 0 1 -1 5 7 4 1 -3 0 7 11 SHEAR DIR 350 349 6 27 42 32 22 32 329 349 329 307 302 333 312 358 335 SST (C) 30.0 30.3 30.0 29.9 29.7 28.3 28.1 27.7 27.0 26.7 26.7 26.4 26.3 26.3 25.6 25.6 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 165 168 165 164 162 147 145 140 133 131 132 128 127 127 120 120 119 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.2 -51.7 -51.9 -51.4 -51.1 -51.2 -50.7 -50.9 -50.6 -50.5 -50.3 -50.6 -50.7 -51.0 -50.9 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.8 1.1 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 85 88 88 87 84 81 77 75 73 70 66 64 61 57 51 48 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 17 19 23 28 31 35 39 40 43 41 39 36 34 33 29 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -19 -10 -6 6 23 28 42 46 63 84 106 99 104 102 118 110 200 MB DIV 82 118 121 137 169 122 100 61 86 39 31 -17 -5 -4 2 -1 5 700-850 TADV -5 -2 -5 -6 -7 -5 -6 6 0 6 14 11 10 5 0 3 2 LAND (KM) 1102 1150 1184 1169 1165 1154 1219 1285 1343 1476 1642 1808 1960 2138 1946 1673 1423 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.7 13.0 13.6 14.1 15.3 16.1 16.5 16.9 17.2 17.5 17.9 18.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 112.2 113.2 114.1 115.1 116.0 117.5 119.2 120.7 121.9 123.9 126.5 129.0 131.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 11 10 9 8 7 8 11 12 12 11 12 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 35 41 48 45 42 17 13 9 4 3 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 68.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 18. 21. 23. 24. 25. 26. 25. 25. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 15. 24. 32. 33. 36. 31. 26. 21. 16. 14. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 21. 19. 9. 1. -5. -9. -12. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 19. 30. 47. 59. 65. 67. 62. 61. 54. 46. 39. 34. 31. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.3 112.2 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062026 FAUSTO 07/19/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.84 14.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 6.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.62 8.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 9.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 -11.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 125.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.78 8.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 3.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 5.9 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 47.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.44 3.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 2.4 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -53.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.50 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 56% is 4.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 43% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 60% is 10.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 39% is 8.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.9% 56.0% 42.4% 28.9% 21.2% 42.5% 60.5% 39.1% Logistic: 3.4% 34.5% 13.0% 7.8% 3.2% 19.2% 20.4% 4.7% Bayesian: 7.6% 37.0% 41.6% 15.2% 1.4% 22.6% 18.4% 8.3% Consensus: 7.9% 42.5% 32.3% 17.3% 8.6% 28.1% 33.1% 17.4% DTOPS: 4.0% 38.0% 24.0% 8.0% 3.0% 47.0% 69.0% 53.0% SDCON: 5.9% 40.2% 28.1% 12.6% 5.8% 37.5% 51.0% 35.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062026 FAUSTO 07/19/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##