* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FAUSTO EP062026 07/20/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 47 56 66 79 95 104 106 101 98 91 84 75 71 65 61 57 V (KT) LAND 40 47 56 66 79 95 104 106 101 98 91 84 75 71 65 61 57 V (KT) LGEM 40 46 52 59 67 82 94 100 95 88 80 73 69 66 63 59 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 14 12 11 8 8 11 13 4 2 4 6 6 9 10 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 0 0 4 1 -1 1 4 5 1 -3 -2 -1 3 7 SHEAR DIR 12 27 43 36 33 47 45 347 351 345 113 328 1 358 20 347 46 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.5 28.9 28.2 27.9 27.1 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.9 26.8 25.8 26.1 26.1 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 165 163 162 160 153 145 142 134 132 132 132 134 133 122 125 125 120 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.4 -51.6 -51.3 -50.8 -51.4 -50.7 -51.0 -50.3 -51.0 -50.3 -50.8 -50.4 -50.8 -50.4 -51.0 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.2 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 88 88 86 84 85 80 78 75 71 71 69 66 57 54 50 44 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 20 23 27 31 35 38 38 42 41 40 37 37 35 33 30 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -3 -2 12 24 16 24 33 52 78 88 100 107 112 119 123 125 200 MB DIV 145 145 132 157 163 120 92 53 69 7 35 9 -7 -15 14 -10 9 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -6 -6 -4 -11 1 7 4 2 9 5 0 0 2 1 6 LAND (KM) 1264 1253 1252 1240 1236 1260 1296 1389 1510 1635 1797 1981 2190 1919 1676 1412 1131 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.8 13.3 13.9 14.5 15.6 16.2 16.5 16.8 17.1 17.4 17.8 18.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.3 115.3 116.2 117.0 117.7 119.2 120.5 122.1 123.9 126.0 128.4 131.0 133.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 9 9 8 7 8 10 11 12 14 13 12 11 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 50 48 44 35 29 15 11 4 3 4 4 4 6 0 1 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 479 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 83.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 18. 20. 21. 22. 22. 21. 20. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 9. 11. 18. 26. 30. 34. 32. 28. 22. 21. 17. 14. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 3. 7. 12. 17. 26. 24. 12. 1. -6. -12. -16. -18. -18. -18. -18. -18. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 16. 26. 39. 55. 64. 66. 61. 58. 51. 44. 35. 31. 25. 21. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 12.3 114.3 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062026 FAUSTO 07/20/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.77 14.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 8.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.52 8.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 15.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 -12.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 148.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.89 11.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 6.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 7.3 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 46.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.43 4.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 2.7 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -59.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.59 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 65% is 5.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 50% is 7.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 62% is 10.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 22.9% 64.5% 50.1% 38.4% 27.1% 50.1% 61.6% 20.8% Logistic: 8.6% 48.8% 21.1% 16.5% 6.6% 25.2% 17.6% 3.7% Bayesian: 6.3% 37.9% 42.4% 16.2% 4.8% 34.7% 12.0% 0.9% Consensus: 12.6% 50.4% 37.8% 23.7% 12.8% 36.7% 30.4% 8.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062026 FAUSTO 07/20/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##