* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FAUSTO EP062026 07/20/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 56 66 73 85 94 96 95 93 87 81 74 70 68 63 61 V (KT) LAND 45 50 56 66 73 85 94 96 95 93 87 81 74 70 68 63 61 V (KT) LGEM 45 50 56 62 68 77 85 86 83 77 69 63 60 57 54 50 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 14 15 11 7 9 8 12 11 8 6 2 5 8 5 4 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 0 3 3 1 -1 3 6 1 0 -1 0 -1 7 14 SHEAR DIR 21 23 34 35 27 11 19 348 1 346 328 347 331 332 334 289 271 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.1 28.5 28.2 27.4 26.9 26.7 26.9 26.9 26.5 26.2 25.7 25.6 25.5 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 163 162 160 156 149 145 137 132 131 134 134 129 126 121 120 118 113 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.5 -51.3 -50.8 -51.1 -51.2 -51.1 -51.0 -50.8 -51.0 -50.6 -51.0 -50.6 -50.7 -50.4 -51.0 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 88 86 85 85 82 78 79 75 74 72 70 63 61 54 51 43 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 24 28 29 32 36 38 40 42 40 39 37 36 35 30 29 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -3 11 22 25 14 23 31 46 53 78 83 86 92 105 106 112 200 MB DIV 127 124 146 147 125 94 63 64 43 37 24 10 7 30 18 12 38 700-850 TADV -6 -8 -7 -5 -9 -7 5 4 3 4 9 6 5 4 4 1 6 LAND (KM) 1261 1244 1234 1238 1252 1279 1344 1438 1538 1704 1905 2117 2068 1791 1526 1309 1171 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.3 13.8 14.4 15.0 16.0 16.4 16.8 17.2 17.5 17.8 18.1 18.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.2 116.0 116.7 117.6 118.5 120.0 121.4 123.0 124.8 127.3 130.1 132.8 135.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 10 11 10 8 7 8 11 12 13 12 12 13 11 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 49 45 35 31 21 14 5 3 3 5 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 497 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 62.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 16. 16. 17. 16. 15. 14. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 6. 7. 9. 16. 23. 28. 31. 27. 24. 20. 17. 14. 9. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 8. 12. 18. 17. 8. 0. -4. -8. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 21. 28. 40. 49. 51. 50. 48. 42. 36. 29. 25. 23. 18. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 12.7 115.2 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062026 FAUSTO 07/20/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.70 7.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.47 4.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 36.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 -7.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 133.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.82 5.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 4.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.29 1.8 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 40.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.37 2.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -43.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.37 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.3% 28.7% 25.8% 20.7% 15.0% 24.9% 23.0% 13.8% Logistic: 1.7% 13.9% 4.0% 2.4% 0.4% 4.3% 5.3% 1.0% Bayesian: 8.6% 17.6% 17.2% 4.1% 0.7% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1% Consensus: 7.9% 20.1% 15.7% 9.1% 5.4% 10.4% 9.6% 5.0% DTOPS: 27.0% 63.0% 46.0% 39.0% 27.0% 39.0% 32.0% 3.0% SDCON: 17.4% 41.5% 30.8% 24.0% 16.2% 24.7% 20.8% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062026 FAUSTO 07/20/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##