* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FAUSTO EP062026 07/20/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 56 65 74 82 93 101 99 97 91 82 76 69 63 59 56 53 V (KT) LAND 50 56 65 74 82 93 101 99 97 91 82 76 69 63 59 56 53 V (KT) LGEM 50 56 62 68 73 82 90 90 86 77 69 64 59 55 52 48 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 16 12 9 6 11 13 14 10 2 4 2 8 8 6 5 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 0 1 0 -5 0 0 7 1 1 -1 1 3 7 8 SHEAR DIR 21 26 24 9 5 39 353 353 347 299 295 14 344 15 336 19 327 SST (C) 29.7 29.4 28.9 28.3 28.1 28.3 27.6 27.1 26.6 26.4 26.5 26.9 25.6 25.7 25.5 25.0 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 162 159 153 147 145 147 140 135 130 129 130 134 120 121 118 112 112 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.3 -50.8 -51.2 -51.5 -50.8 -51.2 -50.6 -51.2 -50.6 -51.0 -50.6 -50.9 -50.5 -51.1 -50.8 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.3 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 86 85 86 83 80 77 77 74 71 69 63 60 57 54 48 46 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 24 27 30 32 34 38 39 41 41 39 38 36 33 31 29 27 850 MB ENV VOR -9 3 17 19 12 13 26 39 52 69 85 103 99 102 86 71 47 200 MB DIV 126 138 146 122 121 121 79 76 35 38 19 28 -2 26 7 24 23 700-850 TADV -6 -9 -5 -7 -7 0 3 4 1 15 7 6 5 4 3 3 -1 LAND (KM) 1251 1237 1231 1234 1243 1311 1382 1484 1634 1814 2021 2145 1855 1610 1402 1233 1093 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.8 14.4 15.0 15.5 16.1 16.6 17.1 17.4 17.7 18.1 18.5 19.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.0 116.8 117.5 118.2 118.9 120.6 122.1 123.9 126.3 128.9 131.7 134.4 137.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 8 8 9 10 12 13 13 13 12 10 10 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 44 35 30 22 14 14 4 5 3 1 3 6 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 68.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 12. 12. 13. 11. 10. 8. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 7. 9. 10. 16. 21. 27. 27. 23. 20. 16. 12. 9. 6. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 14. 21. 19. 9. 1. -5. -9. -12. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 15. 24. 32. 43. 51. 49. 47. 41. 32. 26. 19. 13. 9. 6. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 13.2 116.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062026 FAUSTO 07/20/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.62 9.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 6.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.48 6.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 49.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -9.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 130.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.80 7.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 7.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 4.9 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 32.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.30 2.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -68.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.70 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 49% is 3.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.6% 48.7% 37.2% 26.7% 17.5% 35.5% 27.7% 14.3% Logistic: 5.9% 38.6% 14.0% 10.1% 2.8% 10.8% 6.6% 0.8% Bayesian: 9.5% 30.8% 31.2% 12.6% 2.8% 11.1% 1.9% 0.1% Consensus: 10.0% 39.4% 27.5% 16.5% 7.7% 19.1% 12.1% 5.1% DTOPS: 42.0% 56.0% 41.0% 35.0% 28.0% 26.0% 14.0% 2.0% SDCON: 26.0% 47.7% 34.2% 25.7% 17.8% 22.5% 13.0% 3.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062026 FAUSTO 07/20/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##