* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FAUSTO EP062026 07/20/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 63 71 80 86 99 100 99 93 85 77 71 64 58 54 50 47 V (KT) LAND 55 63 71 80 86 99 100 99 93 85 77 71 64 58 54 50 47 V (KT) LGEM 55 61 66 71 75 83 88 88 82 73 66 62 58 55 52 49 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 16 14 10 10 10 15 12 8 4 1 3 7 4 2 2 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 3 2 -1 -2 -1 1 3 1 0 -1 1 4 11 10 SHEAR DIR 26 23 19 360 11 32 338 350 335 293 194 342 15 355 15 278 278 SST (C) 29.4 28.8 28.2 28.0 28.0 28.1 27.2 26.8 26.5 26.7 26.3 26.0 25.4 25.5 25.5 25.1 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 159 152 146 144 143 145 136 132 129 132 128 124 118 118 118 114 113 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -50.9 -51.4 -51.6 -51.2 -51.3 -51.2 -51.0 -51.1 -50.8 -51.1 -50.6 -50.9 -50.6 -51.2 -50.5 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 85 85 83 80 79 77 74 72 71 68 63 60 56 53 46 41 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 28 29 31 31 36 37 40 40 39 38 37 35 33 31 28 27 850 MB ENV VOR 0 12 17 9 9 21 36 53 64 86 94 104 92 101 94 96 94 200 MB DIV 135 144 118 125 124 90 59 69 29 14 9 13 -6 3 6 42 3 700-850 TADV -8 -6 -7 -10 -7 4 2 2 13 13 7 4 3 3 5 6 5 LAND (KM) 1209 1200 1199 1228 1253 1306 1407 1537 1681 1868 2089 2046 1799 1568 1361 1180 1036 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.6 15.2 15.6 16.0 16.6 17.0 17.3 17.8 18.1 18.4 18.9 19.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.6 117.3 118.0 118.8 119.6 121.1 122.8 124.9 127.3 129.9 132.7 135.3 137.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 11 12 13 13 12 11 10 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 34 28 18 14 9 10 4 3 3 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 70.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 13. 20. 22. 21. 18. 16. 12. 9. 6. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 10. 14. 22. 19. 10. 1. -5. -9. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 16. 25. 31. 44. 45. 44. 38. 30. 22. 16. 9. 3. -1. -5. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 14.0 116.6 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062026 FAUSTO 07/20/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.54 9.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 7.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.44 6.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 76.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -10.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 129.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.80 9.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 10.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.89 8.5 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 23.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.21 2.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 2.5 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -78.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.84 -0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 66% is 5.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 37% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 26.8% 65.5% 45.3% 32.8% 20.0% 37.5% 23.8% 13.2% Logistic: 8.8% 39.3% 13.2% 10.6% 3.3% 9.3% 3.2% 0.4% Bayesian: 10.1% 23.1% 24.4% 8.6% 4.0% 3.9% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 15.2% 42.6% 27.6% 17.3% 9.1% 16.9% 9.1% 4.5% DTOPS: 45.0% 53.0% 33.0% 29.0% 25.0% 41.0% 30.0% 3.0% SDCON: 30.1% 47.8% 30.3% 23.1% 17.0% 28.9% 19.5% 3.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062026 FAUSTO 07/20/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##