* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FAUSTO EP062026 07/21/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 72 80 87 94 104 103 100 94 85 75 68 61 55 51 49 47 V (KT) LAND 65 72 80 87 94 104 103 100 94 85 75 68 61 55 51 49 47 V (KT) LGEM 65 72 77 82 86 93 95 92 84 75 65 59 55 53 51 48 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 17 13 10 7 10 13 10 5 5 3 5 5 7 5 7 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 0 -2 -1 0 0 5 4 3 -1 0 1 6 8 13 SHEAR DIR 25 17 2 354 28 352 353 350 332 284 245 352 33 20 51 298 308 SST (C) 29.0 28.5 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.3 26.6 26.5 26.6 26.7 25.9 25.9 25.8 25.4 25.0 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 154 149 145 144 143 143 137 131 130 131 132 123 123 121 117 113 117 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.5 -51.8 -51.6 -51.1 -51.7 -51.0 -51.5 -50.8 -51.2 -50.8 -51.0 -50.7 -51.4 -51.1 -51.4 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.0 1.2 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 87 84 82 80 79 79 78 74 70 67 62 59 52 45 40 35 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 29 29 32 36 37 41 41 39 36 34 32 30 28 27 26 850 MB ENV VOR 13 15 7 7 11 21 38 44 64 81 88 91 101 87 80 70 79 200 MB DIV 129 122 120 114 101 71 75 42 38 28 45 5 8 -10 15 19 27 700-850 TADV -5 -7 -10 -6 1 3 2 0 13 16 14 2 4 1 2 1 0 LAND (KM) 1198 1205 1220 1245 1255 1328 1440 1581 1782 1978 2166 1951 1675 1464 1289 1099 868 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.9 15.4 15.8 16.2 16.6 17.0 17.4 17.7 18.1 18.6 19.0 19.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.0 117.8 118.5 119.2 119.9 121.4 123.2 125.6 128.5 131.2 133.7 136.2 138.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 8 8 8 10 13 13 13 12 12 11 10 9 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 30 23 16 11 10 7 6 3 2 4 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 68.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 11. 18. 21. 18. 13. 10. 7. 4. 2. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 21. 19. 9. 1. -5. -9. -12. -14. -14. -14. -14. -13. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 15. 22. 29. 39. 38. 35. 29. 20. 10. 3. -4. -10. -14. -16. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 14.4 117.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062026 FAUSTO 07/21/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.44 7.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 8.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.50 7.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 84.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -10.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 117.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.74 8.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 9.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.90 8.2 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 20.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.19 1.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 2.4 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -71.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.74 -0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 43% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 58% is 4.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 43.2% 58.3% 42.8% 31.6% 20.8% 25.1% 17.7% 10.0% Logistic: 17.9% 52.2% 19.2% 18.0% 8.2% 12.1% 2.6% 0.3% Bayesian: 20.2% 31.5% 31.3% 18.0% 8.7% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 27.1% 47.3% 31.1% 22.6% 12.6% 13.5% 6.8% 3.4% DTOPS: 47.0% 42.0% 30.0% 27.0% 25.0% 21.0% 5.0% 0.0% SDCON: 37.0% 44.6% 30.5% 24.8% 18.8% 17.2% 5.9% 1.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062026 FAUSTO 07/21/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##