* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FAUSTO EP062026 07/21/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 73 77 81 86 90 91 89 88 80 76 69 63 58 55 53 50 V (KT) LAND 70 73 77 81 86 90 91 89 88 80 76 69 63 58 55 53 50 V (KT) LGEM 70 74 76 79 82 85 85 81 73 66 59 55 51 49 46 43 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 13 12 7 8 12 10 8 3 5 2 7 5 6 6 8 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 2 4 1 -1 -4 0 2 5 9 11 SHEAR DIR 14 354 350 1 22 346 8 349 205 212 272 306 340 344 297 301 298 SST (C) 28.3 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.1 27.3 26.8 26.3 26.3 26.0 26.4 25.3 25.6 25.6 25.1 25.1 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 147 143 142 142 145 137 132 127 128 125 129 117 120 119 114 114 116 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.8 -51.5 -51.1 -51.5 -51.4 -51.3 -51.4 -51.1 -51.4 -50.8 -50.9 -50.9 -51.3 -50.9 -51.3 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.6 1.1 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 83 82 78 79 78 78 75 73 71 66 59 53 50 46 43 37 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 28 30 33 35 38 39 41 37 36 34 32 30 28 26 24 850 MB ENV VOR 15 7 6 13 23 31 44 55 76 85 100 99 96 80 77 64 63 200 MB DIV 121 115 105 90 85 58 45 14 37 38 26 -4 -20 -2 32 19 1 700-850 TADV -8 -8 -4 1 1 1 -2 5 15 10 9 3 3 0 4 0 0 LAND (KM) 1178 1197 1222 1243 1270 1359 1479 1619 1803 2006 2107 1852 1620 1402 1190 998 826 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.6 16.0 16.3 16.6 17.0 17.4 17.8 18.2 18.6 19.1 19.6 20.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.6 118.4 119.1 119.8 120.6 122.2 124.2 126.5 129.2 131.9 134.7 137.1 139.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 8 8 9 11 12 13 13 13 11 11 10 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 19 12 9 9 10 3 3 2 1 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 35.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. -16. -19. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 15. 18. 14. 12. 8. 5. 2. 0. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 7. 4. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 20. 21. 19. 18. 10. 6. -1. -7. -12. -15. -17. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 15.1 117.6 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062026 FAUSTO 07/21/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.37 3.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.60 4.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 131.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 -5.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.67 4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 5.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 3.4 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 13.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.12 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -70.1 -15.6 to -90.4 0.73 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 20.0% 31.2% 21.1% 17.4% 14.1% 19.7% 14.5% 7.6% Logistic: 2.9% 14.3% 3.5% 2.7% 1.2% 1.3% 0.7% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.6% 3.0% 2.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.2% 16.2% 9.0% 7.0% 5.2% 7.0% 5.1% 2.6% DTOPS: 12.0% 19.0% 13.0% 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 2.0% 0.0% SDCON: 10.1% 17.6% 11.0% 8.5% 7.1% 7.5% 3.5% 1.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062026 FAUSTO 07/21/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##