* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FAUSTO EP062026 07/21/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 67 71 74 77 80 84 84 78 73 66 60 56 52 51 49 V (KT) LAND 65 65 67 71 74 77 80 84 84 78 73 66 60 56 52 51 49 V (KT) LGEM 65 66 67 69 71 73 75 74 69 63 57 51 47 43 40 37 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 5 8 10 12 9 5 6 3 9 7 9 1 9 8 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 -2 -3 -2 -1 2 3 2 0 3 2 8 6 7 12 SHEAR DIR 342 346 32 16 345 358 334 349 285 285 322 335 348 50 268 255 263 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.6 26.9 26.6 26.6 26.4 26.3 25.6 25.4 25.8 25.4 25.1 25.1 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 141 142 139 133 130 131 129 128 120 118 122 117 114 114 121 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.6 -51.1 -51.5 -51.7 -51.1 -51.6 -50.9 -51.2 -50.7 -50.8 -50.5 -51.1 -51.0 -51.3 -51.1 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 4 5 700-500 MB RH 80 78 78 77 78 75 73 71 65 58 53 50 41 38 36 33 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 28 29 32 33 35 37 41 40 37 36 34 31 30 27 25 23 850 MB ENV VOR 4 5 12 22 23 32 45 62 76 91 91 106 108 105 88 77 71 200 MB DIV 109 105 105 85 64 67 46 58 12 23 13 -8 -13 30 33 28 21 700-850 TADV -8 -3 1 1 0 0 0 9 12 8 3 6 2 3 5 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1166 1209 1243 1264 1289 1403 1534 1706 1932 2125 1966 1714 1443 1249 1111 940 708 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.3 16.5 16.8 17.1 17.5 17.8 18.2 18.4 19.0 19.7 20.2 20.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.4 119.2 120.1 120.7 121.4 123.2 125.4 128.0 130.9 133.5 136.0 138.4 141.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 7 8 10 12 13 13 13 12 12 11 9 9 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 10 7 7 8 8 4 3 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 4. 5. 7. 10. 17. 19. 15. 12. 8. 5. 3. -0. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 2. 6. 9. 12. 15. 19. 19. 13. 8. 1. -5. -9. -13. -14. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 16.0 118.4 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062026 FAUSTO 07/21/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.39 3.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.68 5.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 137.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 -4.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.62 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 5.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.41 2.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 9.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.08 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -62.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.62 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.2% 21.2% 18.2% 15.6% 12.8% 17.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 3.9% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.4% 8.4% 6.4% 5.4% 4.3% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 19.0% 11.0% 8.0% 6.0% 6.0% 2.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.7% 13.7% 8.7% 6.7% 5.1% 5.9% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062026 FAUSTO 07/21/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##