* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FAUSTO EP062026 07/21/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 63 63 66 68 69 74 75 75 73 68 62 57 55 53 53 52 V (KT) LAND 65 63 63 66 68 69 74 75 75 73 68 62 57 55 53 53 52 V (KT) LGEM 65 64 64 65 66 66 67 66 60 55 51 46 42 39 37 34 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 7 6 10 12 9 7 4 3 6 7 4 4 5 8 11 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -5 -4 -5 -6 -3 1 2 5 0 0 6 7 9 9 12 8 SHEAR DIR 347 7 3 336 343 3 337 330 296 275 310 326 297 281 274 228 256 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.8 27.3 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.5 25.9 26.3 25.4 25.6 25.8 25.4 25.2 25.6 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 142 140 141 136 132 131 129 130 124 127 118 120 122 117 114 119 125 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.3 -51.6 -51.6 -51.4 -51.2 -51.3 -51.0 -51.3 -50.8 -51.1 -50.7 -51.3 -51.0 -51.4 -51.2 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 5 700-500 MB RH 78 78 78 79 76 72 71 66 63 57 51 48 43 40 37 32 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 28 30 33 35 34 38 37 37 36 35 32 30 28 26 26 24 850 MB ENV VOR 8 12 23 28 31 39 54 59 72 87 96 104 100 99 84 79 64 200 MB DIV 96 94 74 63 42 31 27 17 42 11 5 0 14 10 0 2 -9 700-850 TADV -5 0 0 0 -1 0 5 11 12 9 5 4 1 5 3 0 0 LAND (KM) 1203 1236 1274 1321 1371 1490 1643 1831 2038 2074 1820 1568 1298 1086 930 782 619 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.8 17.0 17.2 17.4 17.7 18.0 18.4 18.8 19.3 19.8 20.2 20.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 119.5 120.3 121.1 121.9 122.7 124.7 127.0 129.7 132.4 135.0 137.4 139.8 142.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 8 9 11 12 12 13 12 11 12 11 10 8 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 6 8 9 4 3 2 3 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 7. 6. 11. 14. 15. 14. 11. 7. 4. 2. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -4. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -2. -0. 2. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. 1. 3. 4. 9. 10. 10. 8. 3. -3. -8. -10. -12. -12. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 16.5 119.5 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062026 FAUSTO 07/21/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.37 3.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.75 5.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 148.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 -4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.52 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 4.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.29 1.3 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 6.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.06 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -42.7 -15.6 to -90.4 0.36 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.7% 17.9% 15.8% 13.8% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 6.3% 5.3% 4.6% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 13.0% 8.0% 8.0% 6.0% 8.0% 3.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.8% 9.6% 6.6% 6.3% 4.9% 4.0% 1.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062026 FAUSTO 07/21/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##