* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FAUSTO EP062026 07/22/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 80 84 87 90 92 88 83 76 65 59 54 50 46 42 40 37 V (KT) LAND 75 80 84 87 90 92 88 83 76 65 59 54 50 46 42 40 37 V (KT) LGEM 75 79 82 83 84 82 77 69 60 52 47 42 38 34 31 28 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 12 9 8 10 9 6 8 10 5 8 2 4 14 17 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -5 -4 -6 0 2 4 2 1 5 4 12 8 3 4 4 SHEAR DIR 15 340 344 353 331 323 349 320 300 346 357 5 351 228 223 251 228 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.3 27.0 27.1 26.6 26.4 26.3 26.8 25.7 26.2 26.3 25.9 25.6 26.1 26.4 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 136 134 135 130 129 128 133 121 126 127 123 119 125 128 123 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -51.2 -51.4 -51.5 -51.3 -51.2 -50.8 -51.1 -51.0 -51.5 -51.3 -51.5 -51.6 -52.5 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 78 79 77 77 74 75 70 63 59 49 44 37 35 31 29 29 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 31 32 33 34 38 36 36 34 30 29 27 25 23 20 18 16 850 MB ENV VOR 18 19 23 27 35 48 56 61 77 80 98 92 87 74 71 51 43 200 MB DIV 78 72 46 34 10 53 48 7 -11 -3 -3 11 27 17 15 43 2 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 -1 -1 6 12 14 10 0 2 1 7 -1 2 1 1 LAND (KM) 1256 1290 1328 1398 1459 1603 1793 2008 2163 1898 1624 1360 1109 886 694 512 373 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.9 17.1 17.3 17.4 17.7 18.0 18.3 18.7 19.0 19.2 19.6 20.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 120.4 121.2 121.9 122.9 123.9 126.2 128.9 131.7 134.2 136.7 139.3 141.8 144.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 10 11 12 13 13 12 12 12 12 11 10 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 8 9 3 3 4 3 2 2 6 0 2 2 0 0 1 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -16. -18. -20. -22. -24. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 6. 0. -1. -3. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 3. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 12. 15. 17. 13. 8. 1. -10. -16. -21. -25. -29. -33. -35. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 16.6 120.4 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062026 FAUSTO 07/22/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.28 2.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.78 5.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 179.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.70 -4.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.40 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 4.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 4.2 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 6.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.06 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -69.3 -15.6 to -90.4 0.72 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 24.1% 27.6% 20.1% 16.3% 13.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.4% 14.5% 3.1% 2.4% 2.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 10.8% 14.3% 7.8% 6.3% 5.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 44.0% 23.0% 21.0% 16.0% 11.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 27.4% 18.6% 14.4% 11.1% 8.0% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062026 FAUSTO 07/22/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##