* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FAUSTO EP062026 07/22/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 72 75 77 79 80 80 77 72 64 58 53 49 45 42 40 37 V (KT) LAND 70 72 75 77 79 80 80 77 72 64 58 53 49 45 42 40 37 V (KT) LGEM 70 71 72 72 72 70 67 62 56 49 43 39 35 32 30 28 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 6 6 10 6 5 6 13 4 8 4 7 7 8 12 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 0 -2 -1 3 4 4 1 7 4 7 3 0 4 2 6 SHEAR DIR 330 337 359 310 310 348 354 299 328 323 299 321 272 267 279 262 256 SST (C) 27.5 27.2 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.9 26.8 26.4 26.0 25.8 25.8 26.1 26.1 26.3 26.3 26.4 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 138 135 132 132 131 134 133 129 124 122 122 125 125 127 127 128 125 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.8 -51.3 -51.6 -51.8 -51.2 -51.5 -50.7 -51.0 -50.6 -51.3 -51.4 -51.6 -51.8 -52.2 -52.4 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 78 76 76 74 73 72 67 57 52 47 39 34 26 23 20 21 19 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 31 33 34 34 35 36 35 34 31 29 26 24 21 18 16 13 850 MB ENV VOR 20 21 32 39 41 50 60 74 78 93 95 92 81 80 72 61 47 200 MB DIV 75 62 48 38 32 61 30 9 -22 -6 -1 12 -26 -6 6 6 16 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -1 0 2 10 10 13 10 9 0 2 4 0 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1275 1324 1378 1447 1512 1689 1896 2130 1993 1738 1475 1213 952 729 538 362 208 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.1 17.3 17.5 17.7 18.0 18.3 18.6 19.0 19.3 19.5 19.7 20.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.0 121.9 122.7 123.9 125.0 127.6 130.4 133.3 135.8 138.2 140.7 143.2 145.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 10 11 12 13 14 13 12 12 12 12 11 10 10 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 6 3 2 3 3 6 5 3 0 0 0 1 1 3 4 4 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 6. 6. 1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 7. 2. -6. -12. -17. -21. -25. -28. -30. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 16.9 121.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062026 FAUSTO 07/22/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.28 2.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.69 4.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 185.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.70 -4.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.41 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 4.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 3.4 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 4.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.04 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -61.7 -15.6 to -90.4 0.62 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.7% 21.0% 17.0% 13.9% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 7.4% 1.5% 1.1% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.9% 9.5% 6.2% 5.0% 3.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 8.0% 7.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 6.4% 8.2% 5.6% 4.5% 3.4% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062026 FAUSTO 07/22/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##