* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FAUSTO EP062026 07/22/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 70 70 71 71 70 67 64 62 57 54 51 49 48 47 44 40 V (KT) LAND 70 70 70 71 71 70 67 64 62 57 54 51 49 48 47 44 40 V (KT) LGEM 70 69 67 66 64 60 55 49 45 40 37 34 31 28 27 25 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 4 5 9 9 5 5 9 10 5 4 1 1 6 11 22 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 1 0 2 4 5 1 2 6 10 13 9 2 3 6 4 SHEAR DIR 330 339 284 296 316 1 293 306 333 330 349 96 294 230 235 226 210 SST (C) 27.3 26.9 26.6 26.7 26.6 26.7 26.2 26.8 25.8 26.1 26.3 26.0 26.2 26.3 26.6 26.2 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 136 132 130 132 131 132 127 133 122 125 127 124 127 128 131 124 124 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.4 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -51.3 -51.5 -51.0 -51.0 -51.0 -51.4 -51.0 -51.3 -51.4 -51.9 -52.0 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 76 76 75 73 73 70 64 57 50 44 39 37 32 27 26 31 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 32 33 33 33 33 32 31 30 28 26 24 22 20 18 16 13 850 MB ENV VOR 18 29 37 41 43 43 49 55 55 70 66 67 57 56 53 50 24 200 MB DIV 61 54 47 36 32 28 16 -17 -21 -14 1 7 2 15 41 43 31 700-850 TADV -3 0 5 2 8 14 13 8 5 7 3 5 0 1 3 3 1 LAND (KM) 1297 1353 1409 1487 1572 1763 1978 2163 1898 1623 1360 1098 827 524 268 157 128 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.3 17.5 17.7 17.9 18.3 18.5 18.7 19.0 19.3 19.7 20.0 20.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.5 122.4 123.3 124.7 126.0 128.8 131.5 134.2 136.7 139.3 141.8 144.3 146.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 11 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 13 15 13 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 4 2 2 2 2 4 2 5 0 1 3 0 1 3 6 0 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. -19. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 11. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -3. -6. -8. -13. -16. -19. -21. -22. -23. -26. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 17.1 121.5 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062026 FAUSTO 07/22/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.27 2.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.63 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 204.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.68 -3.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.39 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 4.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 3.2 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 3.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -58.7 -15.6 to -90.4 0.58 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.1% 18.8% 14.9% 12.2% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 4.0% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.0% 7.6% 5.2% 4.2% 3.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.0% 5.8% 3.6% 3.1% 2.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062026 FAUSTO 07/22/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##