* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FAUSTO EP062026 07/23/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 71 73 73 73 72 69 64 60 55 51 49 48 45 43 40 37 V (KT) LAND 70 71 73 73 73 72 69 64 60 55 51 49 48 45 43 40 37 V (KT) LGEM 70 70 69 68 66 62 57 51 45 40 36 33 31 28 26 24 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 10 12 7 2 7 11 8 9 3 5 2 10 10 23 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 -1 0 3 7 7 2 4 3 12 6 7 5 7 5 0 SHEAR DIR 351 302 303 324 310 326 302 337 345 341 17 327 252 291 246 244 272 SST (C) 26.8 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.6 26.8 26.1 26.1 25.6 25.7 26.2 25.8 26.3 26.5 26.6 26.2 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 131 130 130 130 131 133 125 125 120 121 126 122 128 129 130 126 125 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.7 -51.9 -51.7 -51.2 -51.6 -50.9 -51.1 -50.8 -51.1 -51.0 -51.3 -51.2 -51.8 -51.7 -52.0 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 74 72 72 72 72 68 60 54 48 42 37 34 29 27 29 29 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 32 32 32 32 33 32 30 30 28 25 23 22 19 17 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 29 38 39 43 46 43 58 56 72 68 64 54 54 47 51 45 37 200 MB DIV 68 62 30 26 37 34 12 -46 -13 -9 12 -13 -8 11 13 2 8 700-850 TADV 1 3 3 8 14 13 16 7 10 4 7 1 1 0 1 1 3 LAND (KM) 1346 1418 1482 1565 1650 1856 2077 2034 1802 1559 1296 1027 739 495 316 162 77 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.6 17.8 18.0 18.2 18.4 18.6 19.0 19.2 19.6 20.0 20.4 20.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 122.4 123.6 124.7 126.0 127.3 130.0 132.7 135.4 137.6 139.9 142.4 145.0 147.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 12 13 13 13 12 12 11 11 12 13 13 11 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 2 2 2 1 3 5 0 0 0 0 2 0 3 5 5 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. -19. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. -1. -6. -10. -15. -19. -21. -22. -25. -27. -30. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 17.4 122.4 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062026 FAUSTO 07/23/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.26 2.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.59 4.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 240.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.63 -3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.38 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 4.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 3.5 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 2.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -60.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.60 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.6% 20.0% 16.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 6.5% 1.5% 0.9% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.3% 8.8% 5.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 4.1% 5.9% 3.9% 1.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062026 FAUSTO 07/23/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##