* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FAUSTO EP062026 07/23/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 69 68 67 68 66 61 58 53 48 46 42 39 36 35 34 31 V (KT) LAND 70 69 68 67 68 66 61 58 53 48 46 42 39 36 35 34 31 V (KT) LGEM 70 69 67 65 64 59 54 48 42 37 33 29 26 24 22 20 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 10 10 7 5 6 13 11 5 5 2 8 12 13 23 29 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 1 2 3 5 2 3 8 8 12 5 2 5 2 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 292 293 317 331 345 322 310 333 331 306 214 243 246 262 258 269 265 SST (C) 26.4 26.6 26.5 26.7 26.7 26.0 26.7 25.6 26.0 26.2 25.9 25.8 26.0 26.6 26.2 26.1 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 128 131 130 132 132 125 132 120 124 126 123 122 124 131 126 126 125 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.9 -51.6 -51.2 -51.2 -51.3 -50.8 -51.0 -50.9 -51.5 -51.2 -51.7 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -52.8 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 71 70 70 70 68 62 57 50 44 37 32 28 23 22 23 26 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 30 30 30 31 32 29 30 27 25 23 20 17 14 12 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 35 35 39 43 44 44 59 57 75 65 71 56 52 42 38 29 11 200 MB DIV 50 20 14 12 18 13 -38 -29 -6 9 14 -25 -3 7 -19 -11 -14 700-850 TADV 2 4 8 12 13 13 11 5 9 1 5 1 1 -1 -3 -9 -6 LAND (KM) 1406 1486 1573 1666 1763 1971 2161 1896 1653 1401 1140 873 592 359 201 110 55 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 17.9 18.0 18.2 18.3 18.6 18.9 19.2 19.5 19.9 20.2 20.6 20.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 123.5 124.8 126.1 127.5 128.8 131.5 134.2 136.7 139.0 141.4 143.9 146.5 149.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 13 13 13 12 11 11 12 12 13 13 12 12 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 1 2 1 4 4 1 5 0 1 3 0 0 0 5 1 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. -17. -19. -20. -21. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 10. 9. 8. 6. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. -1. -1. -4. -8. -10. -13. -16. -17. -18. -18. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -2. -4. -9. -12. -17. -22. -24. -28. -31. -34. -35. -36. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 17.7 123.5 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062026 FAUSTO 07/23/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.26 2.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.58 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 281.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.59 -3.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.27 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 4.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 2.8 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 2.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -53.9 -15.6 to -90.4 0.51 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.0% 17.4% 14.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 6.4% 4.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.4% 4.7% 3.4% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062026 FAUSTO 07/23/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##