* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FAUSTO EP062026 07/23/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 75 74 74 73 66 61 56 52 48 46 44 40 38 36 35 31 V (KT) LAND 75 75 74 74 73 66 61 56 52 48 46 44 40 38 36 35 31 V (KT) LGEM 75 75 73 71 69 61 55 49 43 39 35 32 29 26 24 22 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 8 6 7 7 12 3 5 0 6 6 13 17 21 32 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 4 2 4 8 3 11 8 15 10 6 8 3 5 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 293 311 341 334 328 323 326 39 334 146 233 250 270 251 260 261 269 SST (C) 26.6 26.5 26.8 26.8 26.9 26.5 26.1 25.6 25.8 26.1 26.2 26.4 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.4 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 130 130 133 133 134 130 125 120 122 125 126 129 131 129 130 130 130 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.6 -51.2 -51.2 -51.2 -50.7 -51.1 -50.7 -51.2 -51.1 -51.6 -51.6 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -52.7 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 5 6 6 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 71 69 69 67 66 59 52 46 40 35 31 28 25 22 24 27 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 29 30 31 31 29 29 27 26 23 21 19 16 13 10 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 36 42 45 49 46 56 56 69 68 65 58 48 44 36 32 16 6 200 MB DIV 14 12 6 3 5 -8 -42 -20 -10 18 -4 -14 5 -11 -11 -5 12 700-850 TADV 5 11 14 12 13 11 8 7 3 3 2 0 0 -1 -3 -5 -4 LAND (KM) 1490 1580 1674 1771 1873 2098 2026 1749 1475 1223 972 703 406 184 28 20 300 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.0 18.1 18.3 18.4 18.7 18.8 19.3 19.6 19.7 19.8 20.2 20.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 124.8 126.2 127.5 128.9 130.2 133.0 135.5 138.1 140.7 143.1 145.5 148.1 151.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 11 12 13 14 12 12 15 17 HEAT CONTENT 2 2 5 4 6 3 0 0 0 0 2 2 5 4 2 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 1. 1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -18. -20. -22. -23. -24. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 6. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -17. -19. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -2. -9. -14. -19. -23. -27. -29. -31. -35. -37. -39. -40. -44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 17.8 124.8 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062026 FAUSTO 07/23/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.23 1.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.51 3.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 318.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.55 -3.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.20 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 3.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 3.1 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 4.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.04 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -56.1 -15.6 to -90.4 0.54 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.3% 17.1% 13.8% 11.9% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.0% 6.2% 4.7% 4.0% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.0% 4.1% 2.8% 2.5% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062026 FAUSTO 07/23/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##