* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FAUSTO EP062026 07/24/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 82 82 80 76 69 61 54 49 44 43 41 39 35 31 29 24 V (KT) LAND 80 82 82 80 76 69 61 54 49 44 43 41 39 35 31 29 24 V (KT) LGEM 80 81 80 77 73 65 56 50 44 39 36 33 31 28 25 23 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 2 5 6 7 12 7 5 3 6 8 16 19 29 36 44 58 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 3 3 3 4 2 7 7 14 9 7 8 5 4 -1 -4 -16 SHEAR DIR 9 10 315 299 324 332 12 10 162 242 230 254 254 249 272 292 287 SST (C) 26.8 26.7 26.9 26.2 26.5 26.0 25.5 25.7 26.1 25.8 26.0 26.7 26.5 26.5 26.4 26.2 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 134 127 130 124 119 121 126 123 125 132 129 129 128 127 135 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.3 -51.4 -51.3 -51.0 -51.0 -50.9 -51.3 -51.1 -51.4 -51.5 -51.8 -51.9 -52.2 -53.1 -53.9 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.6 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 67 65 62 59 58 50 47 42 36 33 30 27 28 29 31 33 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 30 30 29 28 27 26 24 22 19 19 17 15 11 9 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 42 46 42 44 50 45 47 47 40 31 32 25 27 28 21 6 -12 200 MB DIV 9 5 -6 -1 -13 -34 -15 0 16 -11 5 8 3 -8 -11 -20 21 700-850 TADV 15 11 13 12 10 5 7 4 6 6 0 2 -1 -5 -4 -3 0 LAND (KM) 1682 1780 1883 1994 2110 2012 1779 1527 1265 964 638 352 138 33 4 214 557 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.4 18.5 18.7 18.8 19.2 19.5 19.8 20.1 20.4 20.7 21.0 21.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 127.7 129.0 130.4 131.8 133.2 135.6 137.8 140.2 142.7 145.6 148.8 151.8 154.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 11 11 12 13 14 15 14 12 12 12 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 5 4 5 1 3 0 0 0 1 0 0 6 3 3 3 1 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -9. -13. -16. -19. -22. -24. -27. -28. -29. -30. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 4. 1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -13. -17. -17. -19. -19. -21. -21. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. -0. -3. -11. -19. -26. -31. -36. -37. -39. -41. -45. -49. -51. -56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 18.2 127.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062026 FAUSTO 07/24/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.18 1.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.55 3.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 411.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.44 -2.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.16 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 3.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 3.3 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 4.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.04 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -60.6 -15.6 to -90.4 0.60 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.8% 17.8% 14.8% 12.9% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.2% 4.0% 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.7% 7.3% 5.5% 4.6% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 4.3% 5.1% 3.2% 2.8% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062026 FAUSTO 07/24/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##