* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FAUSTO EP062026 07/24/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 80 79 74 71 63 55 50 47 42 42 39 37 31 28 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 80 79 74 71 63 55 50 47 42 42 39 37 31 28 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 79 76 72 67 59 51 45 41 36 33 31 29 26 24 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 5 10 10 11 11 5 2 7 9 14 18 26 30 38 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 3 3 3 5 8 11 10 6 9 4 3 2 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 347 331 299 296 309 331 352 290 217 241 233 251 249 266 278 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 26.5 25.8 26.4 26.7 25.4 25.7 26.2 25.5 26.2 26.6 26.6 26.4 26.3 26.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 130 122 128 131 118 121 126 120 127 131 131 129 127 129 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.4 -51.3 -50.9 -50.8 -51.0 -50.8 -51.4 -51.1 -51.5 -51.4 -52.0 -52.1 -52.8 -53.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 62 60 59 55 51 47 39 36 33 29 29 30 33 36 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 30 30 28 27 28 26 24 22 20 19 16 14 11 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 42 42 44 48 45 51 44 44 34 35 28 30 26 17 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 6 11 4 -7 -28 -2 -10 -10 23 2 21 9 0 -5 4 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 15 14 16 12 8 9 7 5 10 2 2 0 -3 -10 -5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1782 1887 1997 2103 2128 1873 1631 1380 1080 765 456 206 75 31 136 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.7 18.9 19.0 19.1 19.6 20.0 20.1 20.6 20.9 21.0 21.2 21.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 129.2 130.6 132.0 133.3 134.5 136.9 139.2 141.6 144.5 147.6 150.7 153.7 156.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 12 11 11 11 12 14 15 14 14 13 11 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 2 0 3 5 0 0 3 0 2 5 5 3 2 4 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -5. -10. -14. -18. -21. -24. -26. -28. -30. -31. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. 2. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -3. -2. -5. -9. -12. -16. -16. -19. -19. -21. -21. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -6. -9. -17. -25. -30. -33. -38. -38. -41. -43. -49. -52. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 18.5 129.2 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062026 FAUSTO 07/24/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.16 1.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.50 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 446.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.40 -2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.15 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 3.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 3.1 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 3.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -58.8 -15.6 to -90.4 0.58 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.2% 16.0% 13.1% 11.6% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.1% 5.8% 4.6% 3.9% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.0% 3.9% 2.8% 2.4% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062026 FAUSTO 07/24/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##