* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FAUSTO EP062026 07/24/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 90 86 83 78 69 60 53 48 45 42 42 39 37 34 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 90 86 83 78 69 60 53 48 45 42 42 39 37 34 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 89 85 80 76 66 57 50 45 42 39 36 34 32 30 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 7 7 9 11 7 2 4 7 12 14 16 24 25 36 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 3 3 5 6 11 14 9 6 14 5 5 3 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 325 316 307 309 328 339 341 201 252 224 239 243 245 264 288 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.3 26.5 26.8 26.1 25.6 25.8 26.1 25.9 26.0 26.8 26.5 26.7 26.9 26.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 128 130 133 125 119 122 126 124 125 133 129 131 134 128 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.4 -51.0 -50.9 -51.0 -50.7 -51.3 -50.9 -51.2 -51.1 -51.5 -51.8 -52.0 -52.6 -53.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 3 3 3 4 5 5 6 7 7 7 8 8 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 62 61 57 55 51 47 41 38 35 32 31 30 32 36 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 30 28 28 28 28 25 23 22 20 18 18 15 14 12 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 40 42 40 36 38 34 30 28 29 29 30 31 36 19 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 9 10 3 -38 -33 -4 1 11 15 13 33 2 0 16 0 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 11 9 9 4 9 7 8 0 4 5 3 3 0 3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1900 2011 2125 2125 1992 1769 1516 1244 943 618 315 105 22 7 260 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.6 18.7 18.9 19.1 19.5 19.8 20.1 20.3 20.7 21.0 21.2 21.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 130.6 132.0 133.3 134.6 135.8 137.9 140.3 142.9 145.8 149.0 152.2 155.1 157.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 12 11 11 12 13 14 15 14 12 12 12 13 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 2 3 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 3 6 7 2 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -9. -15. -20. -24. -28. -31. -34. -36. -38. -39. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -2. -3. -2. -6. -10. -13. -17. -18. -17. -19. -18. -18. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -4. -7. -12. -21. -30. -37. -42. -45. -48. -48. -51. -53. -56. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 18.5 130.6 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062026 FAUSTO 07/24/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.08 0.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.48 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 490.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.35 -1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.11 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.56 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 2.7 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 3.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -57.3 -15.6 to -90.4 0.56 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.0% 13.6% 11.3% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 4.7% 3.8% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.4% 2.8% 1.9% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062026 FAUSTO 07/24/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##