* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FAUSTO EP062026 07/24/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 89 86 81 76 68 59 53 49 45 45 41 37 34 30 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 89 86 81 76 68 59 53 49 45 45 41 37 34 31 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 90 86 81 76 65 57 51 46 42 40 37 33 31 28 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 8 12 11 8 6 3 5 6 13 16 22 29 35 47 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 1 5 6 5 10 9 7 11 7 8 0 -1 -10 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 316 322 317 327 330 355 267 211 237 226 253 240 263 289 294 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.3 26.5 26.9 26.1 25.6 25.9 26.2 25.8 26.2 26.6 26.7 26.5 26.6 26.7 27.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 130 134 125 120 123 127 123 127 131 132 129 131 133 136 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.1 -51.1 -51.1 -50.9 -50.8 -51.3 -50.8 -51.2 -51.2 -51.6 -51.7 -52.3 -53.1 -54.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.6 -0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 3 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 6 7 7 8 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 60 56 55 54 51 44 41 38 35 36 30 31 32 35 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 32 29 30 29 28 28 25 24 22 20 19 17 14 12 11 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 41 39 37 41 45 29 31 21 22 26 30 28 13 4 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 1 3 -26 -25 -7 -6 -10 10 11 32 38 12 -7 -2 -12 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 9 8 5 3 6 7 7 -1 7 3 0 0 1 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2015 2125 2120 1993 1865 1643 1380 1088 777 469 222 62 27 134 498 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.6 18.7 18.8 19.0 19.2 19.6 20.0 20.2 20.4 20.8 21.2 21.5 21.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 132.0 133.3 134.6 135.8 137.0 139.1 141.6 144.4 147.4 150.5 153.5 156.2 158.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 11 11 13 14 15 14 14 12 12 15 16 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 3 6 0 0 0 2 0 2 5 5 3 4 5 6 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -10. -15. -20. -24. -28. -31. -35. -37. -38. -39. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 3. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -7. -10. -15. -17. -18. -20. -20. -21. -20. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -9. -14. -22. -31. -37. -41. -45. -45. -49. -53. -56. -59. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 18.6 132.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062026 FAUSTO 07/24/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.06 0.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.45 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 532.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.30 -1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.11 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.56 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 2.6 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 2.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -49.3 -15.6 to -90.4 0.45 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.9% 12.8% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 4.4% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.3% 2.7% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062026 FAUSTO 07/24/26 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##