* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FAUSTO EP062026 07/25/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 80 75 71 66 60 54 51 47 45 40 36 35 31 28 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 80 75 71 66 60 54 51 47 45 40 36 35 31 28 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 80 75 69 64 56 51 46 42 38 34 30 28 25 23 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 10 9 6 6 4 4 9 14 18 26 27 29 43 44 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 6 6 6 5 11 15 8 6 8 7 6 8 -4 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 307 317 314 330 339 265 244 249 234 247 238 249 266 286 283 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 26.1 25.6 25.7 26.0 26.2 25.8 26.1 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.1 26.3 26.3 26.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 125 120 121 124 126 123 126 131 130 128 125 127 128 134 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.8 -50.8 -50.7 -50.9 -51.3 -50.8 -51.3 -51.2 -51.7 -51.6 -52.3 -52.8 -54.0 -54.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 -0.2 0.3 -0.4 -0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 55 53 52 49 44 41 39 38 39 40 41 41 41 45 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 29 28 28 27 25 23 22 20 17 14 12 11 9 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 31 34 34 39 24 23 14 14 14 7 4 7 -4 -8 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -23 -26 -9 -7 -15 -3 21 -11 35 53 20 24 47 32 1 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 1 3 8 6 6 5 2 0 3 2 -1 2 3 -1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2132 1999 1866 1749 1632 1380 1088 798 499 274 138 78 79 328 649 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.7 18.9 19.1 19.3 19.5 19.8 20.1 20.4 21.1 21.6 22.0 22.4 22.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 134.5 135.8 137.0 138.1 139.2 141.6 144.4 147.2 150.3 153.2 155.6 158.0 160.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 11 12 13 14 14 12 11 11 11 14 14 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 0 0 0 1 2 0 1 5 4 2 0 1 3 6 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -4. -8. -13. -18. -21. -25. -28. -32. -35. -36. -37. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 2. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -4. -3. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -16. -20. -24. -25. -23. -23. -22. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -14. -19. -25. -31. -34. -38. -40. -45. -49. -50. -54. -57. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 18.7 134.5 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062026 FAUSTO 07/25/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.08 0.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.42 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 549.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.28 -1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.08 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 1.8 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 1.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -47.3 -15.6 to -90.4 0.42 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 9.3% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 3.2% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.0% 1.6% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062026 FAUSTO 07/25/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##