* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FAUSTO EP062026 07/25/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 81 76 73 69 61 56 52 49 48 43 39 35 30 25 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 81 76 73 69 61 56 52 49 48 43 39 35 30 25 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 80 75 70 66 58 52 46 42 39 35 31 29 26 24 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 8 7 7 5 3 8 11 17 17 28 31 38 38 49 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 4 4 7 17 9 6 12 6 6 0 -3 -5 -8 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 318 313 345 337 302 269 265 242 254 247 245 257 298 314 307 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.2 25.6 25.7 25.9 25.8 26.0 25.7 26.1 26.5 26.5 26.2 26.1 26.2 26.7 26.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 120 121 123 122 125 121 125 130 130 126 124 126 133 132 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.9 -50.6 -50.9 -51.3 -50.9 -51.1 -51.1 -51.3 -51.3 -51.9 -52.9 -53.5 -54.4 -54.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.2 -0.3 0.1 -0.7 -0.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 53 53 49 48 42 41 38 39 37 36 38 38 39 43 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 28 27 27 27 26 24 23 20 18 17 14 11 10 9 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 27 29 32 23 11 7 -1 -1 8 7 4 1 0 -1 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -34 -2 2 -8 -1 20 12 20 41 37 22 19 19 3 -3 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 2 7 5 6 10 2 5 2 6 1 3 2 2 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1982 1860 1738 1617 1495 1234 934 673 431 242 137 75 156 424 792 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.2 19.3 19.6 19.8 20.1 20.5 20.9 21.3 21.8 22.4 22.8 23.2 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 135.9 137.0 138.2 139.4 140.5 143.0 145.9 148.5 151.1 153.9 156.7 159.0 160.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 13 13 12 13 13 12 10 11 15 17 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 5 2 0 1 6 2 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -14. -19. -23. -26. -30. -34. -37. -38. -39. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. -3. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -2. -3. -5. -10. -14. -16. -20. -21. -21. -20. -19. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -12. -16. -24. -28. -33. -36. -37. -42. -46. -50. -55. -60. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 19.0 135.9 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062026 FAUSTO 07/25/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.06 0.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.42 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 572.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.26 -1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.12 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 2.3 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.9 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -52.6 -15.6 to -90.4 0.49 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 10.8% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 3.6% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.1% 1.8% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062026 FAUSTO 07/25/26 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 14 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##