* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FAUSTO EP062026 07/25/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 82 78 74 69 61 54 50 45 40 38 33 28 24 20 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 82 78 74 69 61 54 50 45 40 38 33 28 24 20 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 82 77 72 67 58 52 46 41 38 34 31 28 26 25 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 8 6 4 5 6 13 15 24 27 33 42 56 57 58 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 4 4 8 11 13 4 9 5 3 3 -5 -11 -3 -9 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 297 321 344 314 258 212 253 244 261 265 259 294 306 292 282 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.6 25.6 25.9 25.8 26.2 25.5 25.8 26.3 26.4 26.4 26.0 26.0 26.3 26.8 27.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 120 120 123 122 126 119 123 128 128 128 124 124 128 133 136 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.7 -50.9 -51.3 -51.4 -50.9 -51.4 -51.3 -51.7 -52.1 -52.4 -53.2 -54.1 -54.2 -55.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.7 -0.1 0.4 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 51 49 47 43 42 40 38 37 35 36 35 36 42 54 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 26 25 23 22 20 18 16 13 12 10 8 8 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 25 27 19 14 8 -1 1 0 5 6 0 -4 -6 -13 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -5 0 -6 -16 -9 5 12 27 19 10 16 15 -9 2 29 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 8 4 5 6 5 5 3 -1 0 -2 2 -3 1 -7 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1865 1738 1611 1490 1369 1110 814 545 344 190 122 101 308 603 943 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.4 19.6 19.8 20.0 20.4 20.8 21.3 21.8 22.2 22.6 23.1 23.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 137.0 138.2 139.4 140.5 141.7 144.2 147.1 149.9 152.5 155.0 157.3 159.8 162.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 12 13 13 13 12 11 11 12 13 15 16 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 4 2 2 0 0 3 6 9 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 667 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -10. -15. -19. -23. -27. -31. -35. -38. -39. -40. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. -1. -4. -9. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -11. -16. -20. -20. -21. -22. -20. -19. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -11. -16. -24. -31. -35. -40. -45. -47. -52. -57. -61. -65. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 19.2 137.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062026 FAUSTO 07/25/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.06 0.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.41 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 620.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.20 -1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.13 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 2.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 2.5 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.6 60.4 to 0.0 0.96 0.9 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -50.8 -15.6 to -90.4 0.47 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.2% 12.0% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 4.0% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.4% 2.0% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062026 FAUSTO 07/25/26 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 59 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##