* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FAUSTO EP062026 07/26/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 83 80 76 71 62 55 49 45 41 36 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 83 80 76 71 62 55 49 45 41 36 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 82 78 73 68 58 51 46 41 37 33 30 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 8 7 6 6 12 13 22 28 35 46 49 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 7 11 14 9 6 12 0 2 -9 -6 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 316 335 316 269 283 269 254 249 259 261 293 300 291 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.6 25.9 25.8 26.2 26.0 25.6 26.1 26.4 26.1 26.2 26.0 26.1 26.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 120 123 122 126 124 120 125 129 125 126 124 125 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.9 -51.3 -51.2 -51.0 -51.2 -51.2 -51.4 -51.7 -52.1 -52.9 -52.9 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.5 -0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 49 48 44 43 40 39 39 36 36 37 37 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 27 25 24 22 20 18 16 15 12 10 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 29 20 19 12 3 3 1 13 8 5 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -5 -1 -8 -6 -1 -4 31 30 25 0 26 -18 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 5 7 7 9 7 6 4 7 5 2 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1738 1616 1495 1364 1234 946 691 467 299 194 162 198 437 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.6 19.8 20.0 20.2 20.6 21.2 21.8 22.4 22.8 23.2 23.7 24.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 138.2 139.4 140.5 141.8 143.0 145.8 148.4 151.0 153.7 156.1 158.2 160.7 163.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 12 12 13 12 13 12 11 11 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 3 0 0 1 1 0 2 0 1 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 691 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -15. -20. -24. -28. -33. -36. -39. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -4. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -7. -12. -16. -18. -21. -23. -20. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -9. -14. -23. -30. -36. -40. -44. -49. -54. -57. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 19.4 138.2 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062026 FAUSTO 07/26/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.07 0.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.31 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 660.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.16 -0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.14 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 3.1 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.6 60.4 to 0.0 0.94 0.9 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -62.3 -15.6 to -90.4 0.62 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.9% 13.5% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 4.7% 3.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.5% 2.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062026 FAUSTO 07/26/26 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 35 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##