* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FAUSTO EP062026 07/26/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 76 72 67 62 54 48 45 43 37 32 30 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 76 72 67 62 54 48 45 43 37 32 30 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 76 70 65 60 51 45 40 36 32 29 27 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 7 7 7 8 12 13 23 27 35 41 43 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 10 12 15 11 5 12 4 7 -1 -5 -3 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 343 289 260 256 256 260 243 258 248 262 293 297 293 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.9 25.8 26.2 26.0 25.5 25.4 25.9 26.3 26.1 25.7 26.0 26.2 26.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 123 122 126 124 119 118 123 127 125 120 123 126 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.0 -51.0 -50.9 -50.9 -51.2 -51.0 -51.4 -51.3 -52.4 -52.9 -53.5 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.3 -0.2 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 47 43 42 41 41 38 39 34 35 35 36 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 28 27 26 24 23 22 19 19 18 15 13 12 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 19 13 9 4 -6 -4 4 17 16 17 9 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 3 10 10 5 -14 -11 27 22 26 -9 18 -9 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 5 9 11 6 4 3 4 8 5 7 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1632 1500 1369 1239 1110 859 615 421 280 221 183 257 480 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.6 19.8 20.0 20.2 20.4 21.0 21.6 22.1 22.8 23.3 23.7 24.2 24.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 139.2 140.5 141.7 143.0 144.2 146.7 149.3 151.8 154.4 156.7 158.6 160.9 163.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 10 10 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -13. -17. -21. -26. -30. -34. -36. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -4. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -8. -12. -14. -19. -21. -21. -20. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -13. -18. -26. -32. -35. -37. -43. -48. -50. -53. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 19.6 139.2 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062026 FAUSTO 07/26/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.11 0.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.23 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 664.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.15 -0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.18 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 2.5 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.9 60.4 to 0.0 0.85 0.8 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -49.3 -15.6 to -90.4 0.45 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 11.6% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 4.0% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.3% 2.0% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062026 FAUSTO 07/26/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##