* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FAUSTO EP062026 07/26/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 69 63 58 54 48 43 39 34 29 25 23 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 69 63 58 54 48 43 39 34 29 25 23 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 69 63 58 53 46 42 38 33 30 27 25 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 6 6 10 14 11 22 25 36 43 42 39 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 12 14 9 4 7 11 1 3 -3 -3 0 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 307 284 270 257 271 264 263 260 257 274 286 289 288 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.7 26.1 25.9 25.5 25.4 26.2 26.4 26.0 26.1 25.8 26.0 26.5 26.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 121 125 123 119 118 127 128 124 125 121 123 129 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.2 -51.0 -50.8 -51.1 -51.1 -51.1 -51.2 -52.2 -52.9 -53.2 -54.1 -54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.5 -0.5 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 42 40 40 40 39 38 37 32 32 33 36 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 24 23 22 22 20 18 17 14 12 10 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 8 1 -3 -12 -5 2 11 15 10 4 -6 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -6 1 -3 -9 -10 24 25 20 3 -3 -14 1 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 5 11 10 6 4 5 4 5 3 4 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1495 1359 1223 1100 978 681 453 330 204 168 232 407 659 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.0 20.1 20.4 20.7 21.2 21.7 22.3 22.9 23.5 24.2 25.0 25.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 140.5 141.8 143.1 144.3 145.5 148.5 151.1 153.2 156.1 158.5 160.3 162.4 165.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 13 13 11 12 12 10 10 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 2 0 0 0 2 2 0 1 0 0 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -15. -18. -22. -26. -29. -33. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -12. -17. -21. -22. -21. -20. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -17. -21. -27. -32. -36. -41. -46. -50. -52. -54. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 19.8 140.5 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062026 FAUSTO 07/26/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.14 0.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 0.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.24 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 655.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.17 -0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.14 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 1.9 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.4 60.4 to 0.0 0.86 0.7 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -46.5 -15.6 to -90.4 0.41 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 9.9% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 3.3% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.0% 1.6% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062026 FAUSTO 07/26/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##