* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FAUSTO EP062026 07/26/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 71 67 62 59 52 46 44 37 33 29 28 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 71 67 62 59 52 46 44 37 33 29 28 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 71 66 61 57 50 45 40 35 32 30 29 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 7 9 12 14 13 25 28 36 43 49 50 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 12 9 5 4 10 4 3 -1 -4 -6 -8 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 290 274 272 279 275 253 269 262 271 274 291 283 278 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.1 26.0 25.6 25.6 25.8 26.3 26.4 26.2 25.7 25.9 26.3 26.5 26.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 125 121 120 122 127 128 126 121 123 127 129 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.0 -50.8 -50.9 -51.1 -51.0 -51.2 -51.2 -51.9 -52.5 -53.5 -53.9 -55.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.1 -0.4 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 39 38 37 39 37 38 33 32 33 35 41 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 24 24 21 21 19 17 16 13 11 9 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 0 -5 -12 -14 -6 7 20 14 13 1 -2 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -8 0 -16 -15 -13 29 12 13 -12 4 0 23 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 11 9 3 3 4 4 8 1 5 2 5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1370 1229 1088 950 814 555 352 239 176 153 299 510 732 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.0 20.2 20.5 20.8 21.3 21.8 22.4 23.0 23.6 24.2 24.9 25.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 141.7 143.0 144.4 145.8 147.1 149.8 152.4 154.5 157.0 159.5 161.8 164.0 166.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 12 11 11 12 11 11 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 3 2 2 0 0 3 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -14. -18. -22. -26. -29. -32. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -3. -5. -8. -11. -18. -21. -22. -21. -20. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -13. -16. -23. -29. -31. -38. -42. -46. -47. -50. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 19.8 141.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062026 FAUSTO 07/26/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.15 1.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.25 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 697.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.12 -0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.11 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 3.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 2.5 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.4 60.4 to 0.0 0.83 0.8 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -58.5 -15.6 to -90.4 0.57 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 12.5% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 4.2% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.3% 2.1% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062026 FAUSTO 07/26/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##