* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FAUSTO EP062026 07/27/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 73 70 66 62 53 46 40 35 30 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 73 70 66 62 53 46 40 35 30 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 72 68 64 60 52 46 41 37 34 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 10 14 15 15 26 27 34 40 54 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 8 6 4 6 7 0 3 -3 -15 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 283 267 278 272 264 268 266 268 282 296 295 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.0 25.5 25.6 25.8 26.2 26.4 26.2 26.3 25.9 26.0 26.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 120 121 122 126 128 126 127 123 124 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.1 -51.2 -51.5 -51.4 -51.7 -51.7 -52.3 -52.6 -53.3 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.3 -0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 38 37 37 39 37 37 36 33 33 35 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 21 19 19 16 13 11 10 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -10 -13 -17 -17 -15 11 9 6 3 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -8 -9 -15 -9 25 21 5 12 17 -15 -30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 4 1 0 7 0 3 -2 2 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1234 1088 945 809 678 453 293 171 147 191 384 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.3 20.5 20.8 21.1 21.7 22.1 22.5 23.1 23.6 24.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 143.0 144.4 145.8 147.2 148.5 151.1 153.5 155.9 158.3 160.8 163.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 12 11 11 12 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 2 0 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 668 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -15. -18. -22. -26. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -14. -19. -21. -20. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -9. -13. -22. -29. -35. -40. -45. -49. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 20.0 143.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062026 FAUSTO 07/27/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.15 1.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.22 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 727.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.08 -0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.15 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 3.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 3.2 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.3 60.4 to 0.0 0.91 1.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -62.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.63 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.2% 15.3% 12.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 5.2% 4.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.6% 2.6% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062026 FAUSTO 07/27/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##