* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FAUSTO EP062026 07/27/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 72 67 64 58 49 44 37 32 28 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 72 67 64 58 49 44 37 32 28 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 72 68 64 59 51 45 39 36 33 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 16 16 14 18 26 31 37 37 53 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 4 3 7 5 4 1 0 -5 -14 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 272 275 281 268 259 268 269 277 291 300 288 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.6 25.6 25.8 26.2 26.1 26.4 26.3 25.9 25.9 26.2 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 120 120 123 127 125 128 127 123 123 126 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.1 -51.3 -51.3 -51.4 -51.6 -51.6 -52.3 -52.7 -53.6 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.1 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 37 37 39 37 37 38 34 34 32 34 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 21 21 20 17 15 14 11 10 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -15 -13 -20 -22 4 11 10 15 6 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 6 -1 -7 14 19 11 7 -15 -18 -6 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 3 2 8 3 1 2 1 1 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1109 969 830 698 575 384 230 172 91 220 493 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.4 20.5 20.9 21.3 21.8 22.2 22.8 23.0 23.5 24.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 144.2 145.5 146.9 148.3 149.6 152.0 154.4 156.8 159.1 161.5 164.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 12 11 11 11 11 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 2 1 3 4 0 0 1 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -11. -15. -19. -23. -26. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -9. -15. -19. -20. -20. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -8. -11. -17. -26. -31. -38. -43. -47. -51. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 20.2 144.2 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062026 FAUSTO 07/27/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.15 1.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.18 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 730.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.08 -0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.19 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 3.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 2.6 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.8 60.4 to 0.0 0.94 0.9 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -54.6 -15.6 to -90.4 0.52 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.7% 13.7% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 4.7% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.5% 2.3% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062026 FAUSTO 07/27/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##